Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20568:1" rel="noopener">Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)</a> reported 53% YoY growth in revenue to NTD4.4B, mainly driven by strong uptake of Lenalidomide and Suboxone in America and branded products in Taiwan.</li>
<li>Lotus reported an EPS of NTD4.85 for Q2 2023, 285% above EPS of NTD1.26 reported for the same quarter of 2022. This result beat the average analyst’s estimate by NTD0.64.</li>
<li>Lotus has acquired exclusive global right to develop and commercialize suicidal bipolar therapy NRX-101 and obtained approval for new branded oncology drug Zepzelca in Taiwan.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q23, Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT) reported 53% YoY growth in revenue to NTD4.4B, mainly driven by strong uptake of Lenalidomide and Suboxone in America and branded products in Taiwan.
Lotus reported an EPS of NTD4.85 for Q2 2023, 285% above EPS of NTD1.26 reported for the same quarter of 2022. This result beat the average analyst’s estimate by NTD0.64.
Lotus has acquired exclusive global right to develop and commercialize suicidal bipolar therapy NRX-101 and obtained approval for new branded oncology drug Zepzelca in Taiwan.


Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Continued Stellar Growth in Q2; Pipeline Expansion to Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>In 1H23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> reported revenue growth of 16% YoY to ¥947.5B, ahead of the guidance of ¥867B, as all operating segments recorded increased revenue.</li>
<li>In 1H23, revenue from pharmaceutical segment grew 21% YoY to ¥637.9B, mainly driven by the growth of the four global products, which contributed 49% of segment revenue.</li>
<li>Encouraged by a better-than-expected 1H23 result, Otsuka has raised 2023 guidance. The company has increased revenue, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 6%, 17%, and 19%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In 1H23, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported revenue growth of 16% YoY to ¥947.5B, ahead of the guidance of ¥867B, as all operating segments recorded increased revenue.
In 1H23, revenue from pharmaceutical segment grew 21% YoY to ¥637.9B, mainly driven by the growth of the four global products, which contributed 49% of segment revenue.
Encouraged by a better-than-expected 1H23 result, Otsuka has raised 2023 guidance. The company has increased revenue, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 6%, 17%, and 19%, respectively.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Strong 1H23 Result Prompts 2023 Guidance Raise; Pipeline Is Advancing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> reported record-high revenue and operating profit of KRW866 billion and KRW253 billion, up 33% and 49%, YoY, respectively in 2Q23, aided by contract signing spree.</li>
<li>With continued orders from the leading global pharmas, the company’s total cumulative CMO contracts reached to $11.3B in July, up 19% from $9.5B at the end of 2022.</li>
<li>Outlook for H2 is more positive with revenue from Plant 4 will be reflected from Q3. Two new biosimilars launch in the U.S. and EU will also add to revenue.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported record-high revenue and operating profit of KRW866 billion and KRW253 billion, up 33% and 49%, YoY, respectively in 2Q23, aided by contract signing spree.
With continued orders from the leading global pharmas, the company’s total cumulative CMO contracts reached to $11.3B in July, up 19% from $9.5B at the end of 2022.
Outlook for H2 is more positive with revenue from Plant 4 will be reflected from Q3. Two new biosimilars launch in the U.S. and EU will also add to revenue.


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Strong Momentum in 2Q23- Revenue Up 33%; Net Profit Jumps 22%

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanofi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4564:1" rel="noopener">Sanofi (SAN FP)</a> earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.</li>
<li>The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.</li>
<li>Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.</li>
</ul>



Sanofi (SAN FP) earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.
The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.
Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.


Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis (NOVN SW)

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Continued Stellar Growth in Q2; Pipeline Expansion to Drive Growth

Lotus saw 53% YoY revenue growth in 2Q23, driven Lenalidomide and Suboxone in the US and branded products in Taiwan. EPS exceeded expectations....

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Strong 1H23 Result Prompts 2023 Guidance Raise; Pipeline Is Advancing

Otsuka reports 16% YoY revenue growth in 1H23, surpassing guidance, driven by four global products. The company raised 2023 revenue, op. profit,...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Strong Momentum in 2Q23- Revenue Up 33%; Net Profit Jumps 22%

Samsung Biologics reported record-high revenue and operating profit in 2Q23, aided by contract signing spree. Outlook for H2 is positive with...

Tina Banerjee

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

Dupixent is now the flagship drug of Sanofi, contributing ~23% of revenue. The company added two new drugs to its portfolio this year. Sanofi...

Tina Banerjee

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

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Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Continued Stellar Growth in Q2; Pipeline Expansion to Drive Growth

​Lotus saw 53% YoY revenue growth in 2Q23, driven Lenalidomide and Suboxone in the US and branded products in Taiwan. EPS exceeded expectations....

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Strong 1H23 Result Prompts 2023 Guidance Raise; Pipeline Is Advancing

​Otsuka reports 16% YoY revenue growth in 1H23, surpassing guidance, driven by four global products. The company raised 2023 revenue, op. profit,...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Strong Momentum in 2Q23- Revenue Up 33%; Net Profit Jumps 22%

Samsung Biologics reported record-high revenue and operating profit in 2Q23, aided by contract signing spree. Outlook for H2 is positive with...

Tina Banerjee

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

Dupixent is now the flagship drug of Sanofi, contributing ~23% of revenue. The company added two new drugs to its portfolio this year. Sanofi...

Tina Banerjee

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Lotus saw 53% YoY revenue growth in 2Q23, driven Lenalidomide and Suboxone in the US and branded products in Taiwan. EPS exceeded expectations....

Otsuka reports 16% YoY revenue growth in 1H23, surpassing guidance, driven by four global products. The company raised 2023 revenue, op. profit,...