HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Joinn Laboratories China  Lt / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The monkeys have become <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joinn-laboratories-china-c-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31498:1" rel="noopener">Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)</a>’s important profit growth point based on the logic chain of "monkey supply shortage - monkey price rise - Joinn’s performance increase". </li>
<li>Faced with doubts about the future prosperity of CXO, we don't think Joinn is immune as a part of this industrial chain. Joinn is hard to achieve the V-shaped rebound.</li>
<li>Valuations are hard to increase by when the industry is very mature.For investment logic, my favorite is the industry beta, followed by industry beta+alpha. The last is low P/E ratio.</li>
</ul>


The monkeys have become Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)’s important profit growth point based on the logic chain of "monkey supply shortage - monkey price rise - Joinn’s performance increase". 
Faced with doubts about the future prosperity of CXO, we don't think Joinn is immune as a part of this industrial chain. Joinn is hard to achieve the V-shaped rebound.
Valuations are hard to increase by when the industry is very mature.For investment logic, my favorite is the industry beta, followed by industry beta+alpha. The last is low P/E ratio.


Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 - It's Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 16th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in ZTO, Yum China, Netease, HSBC, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics/Apptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 16th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in ZTO, Yum China, Netease, HSBC, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics/Apptec.


HK Short Interest: ZTO, Yum China, Netease, HSBC, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics/Apptec

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CXO sector plummeted after Biden has officially signed the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative. In our impression, all sharp declines of CXO were mostly due to geographical conflicts/overseas policy disturbances.</li>
<li>We remain conservative about CXO’s outlook. If investors still choose to invest in CXO, there are some questions to ponder based on the general environment of Sino-US confrontation.</li>
<li>As tensions between China and the US escalate, it may no longer be possible to think on the basis of "common sense". Investors are advised to think “outside the box”. </li>
</ul>


CXO sector plummeted after Biden has officially signed the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative. In our impression, all sharp declines of CXO were mostly due to geographical conflicts/overseas policy disturbances.
We remain conservative about CXO’s outlook. If investors still choose to invest in CXO, there are some questions to ponder based on the general environment of Sino-US confrontation.
As tensions between China and the US escalate, it may no longer be possible to think on the basis of "common sense". Investors are advised to think “outside the box”. 


About the CXO Plunge After Biden Signed National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$850.0 million, led by financials, industrials, and offset by information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$850.0 million, led by financials, industrials, and offset by information technology, energy.
We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL.


Northbound Flows (Sep 16th): Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.</li>
<li>Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

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WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)

Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 - It's Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears

The logic chain of "monkey shortage-monkey price rise-Joinn’s performance increase" has shaken.Faced with doubts about future prosperity of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Short Interest: ZTO, Yum China, Netease, HSBC, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics/Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 16th and highlight short interest changes in ZTO, Yum China, Netease,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

About the CXO Plunge After Biden Signed National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative

CXO plunged after Biden signed the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative. As tensions between China and US escalate, it is no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows (Sep 16th): Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB and CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Shaanxi Coal, CMB, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

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