HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "14th Five-year Plan" for the development of pharmaceutical industry was released. China's attention to the internationalization development of the pharmaceutical industry has risen to a new height.</li>
<li>There are still many real clinical needs that need to be addressed through innovation. So, this requires a change in thinking and a broadening of cognitive boundaries.</li>
<li>For some biotech, it is very difficult to have successful commercialization without differentiating products. Companies have to know how to “define” a good product,which is the right way to innovate.</li>
</ul>


The "14th Five-year Plan" for the development of pharmaceutical industry was released. China's attention to the internationalization development of the pharmaceutical industry has risen to a new height.
There are still many real clinical needs that need to be addressed through innovation. So, this requires a change in thinking and a broadening of cognitive boundaries.
For some biotech, it is very difficult to have successful commercialization without differentiating products. Companies have to know how to “define” a good product,which is the right way to innovate.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.4)- "14th Five-Year Plan" Of Pharmaceuticals, the Right Way to Innovate

<ul>
<li>Last week, the 7th national volume-based purchase (VBP) began, involving 208 product specifications and 59 varieties.</li>
<li>We summaries the competitive landscape and outlook of both domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies in this VBP.</li>
<li>Most investors may not have experienced July 22, 2015, so there is no reason to dismiss the prospects of China's healthcare industry because of the correction in the short term. </li>
</ul>


Last week, the 7th national volume-based purchase (VBP) began, involving 208 product specifications and 59 varieties.
We summaries the competitive landscape and outlook of both domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies in this VBP.
Most investors may not have experienced July 22, 2015, so there is no reason to dismiss the prospects of China's healthcare industry because of the correction in the short term. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.28) - 7th National VBP, Taking History as a Mirror, Confidence Rebuilt

<ul>
<li>Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. </li>
<li>Our view is that this is <strong>a temporary rebound</strong> after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than <strong>a complete reversal</strong>.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.</li>
<li>In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. 
Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.
In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.


The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.</li>
<li>The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.</li>
<li>The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.
The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.
The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.</li>
<li>Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.4)- "14th Five-Year Plan" Of Pharmaceuticals, the Right Way to Innovate

We analyzed important points of the "14th Five-year Plan" for pharmaceutical industry. Meanwhile, the right way to innovate requires a broadening...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.28) - 7th National VBP, Taking History as a Mirror, Confidence Rebuilt

We analyzed the competitive landscape of 7th national VBP. Taking history as a mirror, the 2015 healthcare reform could be a good reference.So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

The rebound in China healthcare sector last week was a temporary rebound rather than a complete reversal. In terms of future direction of stock...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

The insight analyzed Betta about key products such as Icotinib, Ensartinib, MIL60, CM082, concerns on slow product iteration,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

The insight analyzed Junshi in terms of the potential reasons behind the termination of PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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