HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.</li>
<li>For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.</li>
</ul>


The 20th National Congress highlighted the importance of autonomy and controllability of key supply chains. So, the most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution.
For the investment logic of import substitution, we’re more inclined to focus on medical devices sector rather than pharmaceutical sector due to more obvious policy catalysts and higher certainty.
We analyzed our top picks (both medical device sector and others in 2023). After a challenging year, we think that China healthcare in 2023 would be very promising.


2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.


HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. </li>
<li>We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.</li>
<li>Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.</li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)’s share price had some rebounds last week, which could be related to some positive progress on business and the picking-up market sentiment in healthcare sector. 
We increased overall sales forecast for Innovent by including the two new products from Sanofi. But it’s still far from the management's target of RMB20 billion sales in 5 years.
Innovent’s current commercialization capability is like a "semi-finished product", and has long way to go. It lacks the second big product except PD-1 to “pave the way” for next-stage development.


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - The Concerns and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>The recent rally in healthcare is mainly driven by medical device sector. But investors are advised to exit in time before the truth is revealed.</li>
<li>For pharmaceutical sector, it may not be as lucky as medical device sector.Even if it has followed the positive momentum of medical device sector, stock price would diverge after that.</li>
<li>We won't take any chances on CXO due to geographical conflicts and overseas policy risks, with "no reversal signal". We updated our top picks in various sectors. </li>
</ul>


The recent rally in healthcare is mainly driven by medical device sector. But investors are advised to exit in time before the truth is revealed.
For pharmaceutical sector, it may not be as lucky as medical device sector.Even if it has followed the positive momentum of medical device sector, stock price would diverge after that.
We won't take any chances on CXO due to geographical conflicts and overseas policy risks, with "no reversal signal". We updated our top picks in various sectors. 


About the Recent Rebound in China Healthcare and the Future Direction (Updated Top Picks)

<ul>
<li>The State Council decided to support renovation of medical equipment with special refinancing/financial interest subsidy, which has promoting effect in short-term. Investors are advised to look at it dialectically. </li>
<li>The draft for comments on the centralized procurement of liver function biochemical reagents led by Jiangxi was released. The rules are better than the market expected.</li>
<li>We saw some new changes in VBP. For investors, since VBP is inevitable, it is better to accept it - There are still good opportunities in some cases.</li>
</ul>


The State Council decided to support renovation of medical equipment with special refinancing/financial interest subsidy, which has promoting effect in short-term. Investors are advised to look at it dialectically. 
The draft for comments on the centralized procurement of liver function biochemical reagents led by Jiangxi was released. The rules are better than the market expected.
We saw some new changes in VBP. For investors, since VBP is inevitable, it is better to accept it - There are still good opportunities in some cases.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.14) - State Finance Discount for Medical Device; IVD VBP; VBP Changes

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

2023 High Conviction - China Healthcare: Recognize the Direction and Follow the Trend

The most obvious opportunity in China healthcare is import substitution,based on which companies in medical device sector are expected to have good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong Weigao.

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of {} and highlight short interest changes in BYD, Conch Venture, Shandong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM