HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaron-beijing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28428:1" rel="noopener"></a>Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.</li>
<li>One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy - Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  </li>
<li>Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.</li>
</ul>



Pharmaron’s share price plunged after the release of the estimate for 2022 interim results, even dragging down the entire CXO sector, which reflected the attitude of Mr Market.
One important reason for low net profit growth is related to the development strategy - Even if Pharmaron achieves  “integration”, its advantage/profit margin could largely shrink due to overcapacity/fierce competition.  
Pharmaron can only achieve V-shaped rebound by making breakthroughs in CGT CXO to boost valuations and expectations on outlook rather than pursue the strategy of “integration” as in the past.


Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) - The Story May Have Changed

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight Tencent and BYD that dominated the inflows last week.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight Tencent and BYD that dominated the inflows last week.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: 11 Weeks of Inflows

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau organized the 7th round of centralized procurement of medical consumables, mainly including spring coil, endoscopic stapler, ultrasound knife and vacuum blood collection tube.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cstone-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27882:1" rel="noopener">CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK)</a> is considering a potential sale of the business. We analyzed the logic behind this deal.</li>
<li>For biotech, Mr Market can never be rational enough to see the big picture. Maybe we should be "dumb". Buy low and sell high works for all investors.</li>
</ul>


Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau organized the 7th round of centralized procurement of medical consumables, mainly including spring coil, endoscopic stapler, ultrasound knife and vacuum blood collection tube.

CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK) is considering a potential sale of the business. We analyzed the logic behind this deal.
For biotech, Mr Market can never be rational enough to see the big picture. Maybe we should be "dumb". Buy low and sell high works for all investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (July22)-Jiangsu Province VBP, CStone's Potential Sale, Irrational Mr Market

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent is expected to transform from a biotech to a biopharma. From the present point of view, the Company is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety.  </li>
<li>With high R&amp;D efficiency, strong sales capability, top talent teams, and mindset keeping pace with the times, investors could consider to replace Hengrui with Innovent in the portfolio.  </li>
<li>Innovent’s valuation anchor is HK$40 billion, below which it's undervalued. Its market value could reach about RMB80 billion to RMB120 billion, based on sales of RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion. </li>
</ul>


Innovent is expected to transform from a biotech to a biopharma. From the present point of view, the Company is a better comprehensive choice of certainty, elasticity and safety.  
With high R&amp;D efficiency, strong sales capability, top talent teams, and mindset keeping pace with the times, investors could consider to replace Hengrui with Innovent in the portfolio.  
Innovent’s valuation anchor is HK$40 billion, below which it's undervalued. Its market value could reach about RMB80 billion to RMB120 billion, based on sales of RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Innovent Is Not Optional but Necessary in Portfolio

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 8th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Innovent Biologics, Yeahka, CR Beer, Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 8th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest changes in Innovent Biologics, Yeahka, CR Beer, Great Wall Motor.


HK Short Interest: Innovent Biologics, Yeahka, CR Beer, Great Wall Motor

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) - The Story May Have Changed

Due to overcapacity/fierce competition,Pharmaron is hard to achieve V-shaped rebound by the strategy of "integration".We are conservative about its...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows: 11 Weeks of Inflows

Southbound connect recorded 11 weeks of consecutive inflows. We highlight Tencent and BYD that dominated the inflows last week.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (July22)-Jiangsu Province VBP, CStone's Potential Sale, Irrational Mr Market

Jiangsu Province released VBP results on medical consumables. CStone proposed a potential sale of the business.We analyzed the logic behind. Maybe...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang