HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A significant change in 23Q1 was not just a narrowing of net loss, but a sudden turnaround in sales profit under the rapid revenue growth, which was an important leap.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s commercialization capabilities largely rely on high expense level that significantly deviating from the industry average, making eventual commercialization success more difficult. BeiGene is an "outlier" even among global peers.</li>
<li>How to control expenses while ensuring sustained sales growth and long-term competitiveness is an important issue for BeiGene. If no new blockbuster product emerges ultimately, high valuation would not last.</li>
</ul>


A significant change in 23Q1 was not just a narrowing of net loss, but a sudden turnaround in sales profit under the rapid revenue growth, which was an important leap.
BeiGene’s commercialization capabilities largely rely on high expense level that significantly deviating from the industry average, making eventual commercialization success more difficult. BeiGene is an "outlier" even among global peers.
How to control expenses while ensuring sustained sales growth and long-term competitiveness is an important issue for BeiGene. If no new blockbuster product emerges ultimately, high valuation would not last.


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 - Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. </li>
<li>We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. </li>
<li>Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. </li>
</ul>


It is the time to reassess the commercialization performance and the outlook of China biotech companies, including BeiGene, Innovent, Henlus, Zai Lab, Hutchmed, Junshi, RemeGen, Innocare, Akeso. 
We summarized the data of these biotech companies’ product revenue and profit performance to judge whether their commercialization capability is sufficient to afford production, sales teams and long-term R&amp;D activities. 
Most China Biotech cannot be said to achieve "commercialization success", but they have showed some difference.We hope investors could have a better understanding about China biotech and make better decisions. 


China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

<ul>
<li>Anhui Province publicly solicits pre-bid data for the provincial centralized procurement of Class B large medical equipment, surgical robots included, which is worth investors’ attention.</li>
<li>No more than five biotech would truly stand out in the future. We suggest investors focus on those biotech in the first echelon, rather than betting on riskier smaller ones.</li>
<li>For Jafron, we analyzed some key points of the company. Due to the concerns, the temporary rebound in performance in 2023 is not enough to completely reverse the investment logic.</li>
</ul>


Anhui Province publicly solicits pre-bid data for the provincial centralized procurement of Class B large medical equipment, surgical robots included, which is worth investors’ attention.
No more than five biotech would truly stand out in the future. We suggest investors focus on those biotech in the first echelon, rather than betting on riskier smaller ones.
For Jafron, we analyzed some key points of the company. Due to the concerns, the temporary rebound in performance in 2023 is not enough to completely reverse the investment logic.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.14)- Surgical Robot VBP, Only 5 Biotech to Stand Out, Jafron Biomedical

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With no changes made at the March rebalance, we are still stuck at 76 index constituents. And it's been a year later than originally planned to reach 80 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions in June. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to around 5% one-way turnover, so there could be a mix of larger and smaller stocks added.</li>
<li>There will be at least 1x ADV to trade on nearly all inclusions. Short interest is over 4% of float on some stocks and there has been a recent jump.</li>
</ul>


With no changes made at the March rebalance, we are still stuck at 76 index constituents. And it's been a year later than originally planned to reach 80 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions in June. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to around 5% one-way turnover, so there could be a mix of larger and smaller stocks added.
There will be at least 1x ADV to trade on nearly all inclusions. Short interest is over 4% of float on some stocks and there has been a recent jump.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: A Year Later Than Planned - 80 Members at Last?

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>700.HK/ IQ： Tencent Video and Douyin reach strategic cooperation （+/-）</li>
<li>NIO: NIO to allow consumers to lock in EC7 orders starting Apr 10 （+）</li>
<li>ZLAB/1801HK: ZaiLab started FGFR2 mAb Phase III trial for Gastric Cancer in China (+)</li>
</ul>


700.HK/ IQ： Tencent Video and Douyin reach strategic cooperation （+/-）
NIO: NIO to allow consumers to lock in EC7 orders starting Apr 10 （+）
ZLAB/1801HK: ZaiLab started FGFR2 mAb Phase III trial for Gastric Cancer in China (+)


China TMT Update(Apr.10): 700.HK/IQ/NIO/ZLAB/1801HK - Tencent Video and Douyin Reach Cooperation

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 - Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place

BeiGene made breakthrough in sales profit in 23Q1.But to achieve overall breakeven needs the success of the 3rd blockbuster drug.When such...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Biotech – The Commercialization Performance and The Outlook

In the context of the fading dividend of medical system reform and the lack of next big variety, the previous wave of innovative drug boom is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.14)- Surgical Robot VBP, Only 5 Biotech to Stand Out, Jafron Biomedical

Anhui Province starts VBP on medical equipment, including surgical robot.No more than 5 biotech will truly stand out, so just focus on them.For...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: A Year Later Than Planned - 80 Members at Last?

We highlight 10 potential adds in June. Adding all 10 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 5%, so fewer stocks (some large, some small) will...

Brian Freitas

China TMT Update(Apr.10): 700.HK/IQ/NIO/ZLAB/1801HK - Tencent Video and Douyin Reach Cooperation

Tencent Video and Douyin reach strategic cooperation ； NIO to allow onsumers to lock in EC7 orders starting Apr 10 ；ZaiLab started FGFR2 mAb Phase...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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