HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.</li>
<li>Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem</li>
<li>Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.
Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem
Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

<ul>
<li>23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.</li>
<li>Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.</li>
<li>It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.</li>
</ul>


23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.
Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.
It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

<ul>
<li>Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.</li>
<li>Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&amp;D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.</li>
<li>There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&amp;D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.</li>
</ul>


Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.
Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&amp;D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.
There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&amp;D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook

<ul>
<li>After COVID-19, China healthcare has been under pressure for a long time. High interest rate environment is unfriendly to companies, but the current situation is not entirely devoid of opportunities.</li>
<li>GLP-1s has reignited investors’ interest in this industry, which will be long-term opportunity and bring alpha. With rich domestic/overseas catalysts ahead, related share price performance is worth looking forward to.</li>
<li>Among the domestic GLP-1s companies, Innovent is our top pick. The "concept validation" of Innovent’s business model has been completed. A qualitative change in the Company is coming soon.  </li>
</ul>


After COVID-19, China healthcare has been under pressure for a long time. High interest rate environment is unfriendly to companies, but the current situation is not entirely devoid of opportunities.
GLP-1s has reignited investors’ interest in this industry, which will be long-term opportunity and bring alpha. With rich domestic/overseas catalysts ahead, related share price performance is worth looking forward to.
Among the domestic GLP-1s companies, Innovent is our top pick. The "concept validation" of Innovent’s business model has been completed. A qualitative change in the Company is coming soon.  


2024 High Conviction – China Healthcare: It's Time to Embrace a New Era

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang