Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments </li>
<li>That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed</li>
<li>An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare is likely to allow funds transfer service providers (cashless apps) to support digital salary payments 
That could boost user and transaction volume growth rates although there are challenges like remittance limits and direct access to cash that need to be addressed
An expansion in utility is positive although comparable valuations from global peers remains under pressure


Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> provided a welcome respite with a positive listing, while South Korean IPOs continued to struggle.</li>
<li>There was only one large placement this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glp-j-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11009:1" rel="noopener">GLP J-REIT (3281 JP)</a> deciding to brave the markets.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Socionext (6526 JP) provided a welcome respite with a positive listing, while South Korean IPOs continued to struggle.
There was only one large placement this week, with GLP J-REIT (3281 JP) deciding to brave the markets.


ECM Weekly (16th Oct 2022) - Socionext, Betagro, Lionheart, Five-Star, Giant Biogene, GLP J-REIT

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As a follow-on to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-october-2022-rebal-big-names-with-big-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81835" rel="noopener">TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows</a> which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.</li>
<li>In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.</li>
<li>Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.</li>
</ul>


As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The PayPay conversion is complete and management is focused on managing costs, which is reassuring for ZHD financial targets and for an eventual IPO</li>
<li>There was less said about the latter, however, whilst detail on the valuation gain that parent Softbank Corp needs to hit its own operating income target has not been confirmed</li>
<li>Our valuation of ¥500bn for PayPay looks more reasonable as 50-73% YTD declines in public comps have brought trading multiples in line (PayPay at 5x FY22e revenue versus 5-8x)</li>
</ul>


The PayPay conversion is complete and management is focused on managing costs, which is reassuring for ZHD financial targets and for an eventual IPO
There was less said about the latter, however, whilst detail on the valuation gain that parent Softbank Corp needs to hit its own operating income target has not been confirmed
Our valuation of ¥500bn for PayPay looks more reasonable as 50-73% YTD declines in public comps have brought trading multiples in line (PayPay at 5x FY22e revenue versus 5-8x)


Z Holdings / PayPay - A Focus on Margin Improvement as ZHD Moves to Consolidate

<ul>
<li>The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration</li>
<li>NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held </li>
<li>The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage</li>
</ul>


The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration
NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held 
The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage


Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

Japan Fintech - Rule Changes Should Benefit Cashless Apps like PayPay

The MHLW is likely to update rules on digital wage payments by fiscal year end, opening the door for cashless apps to participate. That is positive...

Kirk Boodry

ECM Weekly (16th Oct 2022) - Socionext, Betagro, Lionheart, Five-Star, Giant Biogene, GLP J-REIT

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

This companion piece to the first October 2022 FFW Rebalance piece shows both large (>¥5bn) and small (¥1-5bn) intra-sector flows. Using the flows...

Travis Lundy

Z Holdings / PayPay - A Focus on Margin Improvement as ZHD Moves to Consolidate

Z Holdings confirmed it is PayPay’s majority stake. An update on the business includes a stronger message improving the cost structure. Our PayPay...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Public equity portfolios in our coverage represent 3% of total market cap, driven by capital alliances tied to business collaboration. We thought...

Kirk Boodry

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