Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SoftBank group’s headline NAV discount is over 50%, factoring in the T-Mobile shares windfall at December-end</li>
<li>SoftBank Corp is looking to IPO digital payments company PayPay, which should also be a positive driver for SoftBank Group shares going forward, but only a marginal one</li>
<li>Arm shares have been defying gravity, but we see downside risk going forward, as well as questions over SVF1 and SVF2 private company valuations; and the threat of JPY appreciation</li>
</ul>


SoftBank group’s headline NAV discount is over 50%, factoring in the T-Mobile shares windfall at December-end
SoftBank Corp is looking to IPO digital payments company PayPay, which should also be a positive driver for SoftBank Group shares going forward, but only a marginal one
Arm shares have been defying gravity, but we see downside risk going forward, as well as questions over SVF1 and SVF2 private company valuations; and the threat of JPY appreciation


Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward

<ul>
<li>No changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.</li>
<li>The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.</li>
<li>There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) but now less funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983). But it will continue being an interesting Nikkei 225 influence (for years to come).</li>
</ul>


No changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) but now less funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983). But it will continue being an interesting Nikkei 225 influence (for years to come).


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal:  Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan &amp; Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India earlier.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan &amp; Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Japan & Korea

Samsung Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, a number of large filings over the holidays is somewhat positive for 2024 prospects.</li>
<li>On the placement front, 2024 picked up where 2023 left off, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> leading the way.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, a number of large filings over the holidays is somewhat positive for 2024 prospects.
On the placement front, 2024 picked up where 2023 left off, with Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) leading the way.


ECM Weekly (14th Jan 2024) - Samsung, Lasertec, Ayala, Indigo, Amer, IPO Pipeline, 2023 Performance

Japan

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

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Softbank Corp (9434 JP)

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward

SoftBank group's NAV discount is 50%+, post T-Mobile shares windfall. PayPay IPO may boost SoftBank shares a bit but JPY strength detracts, Arm...

Victor Galliano

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

Fast Retailing reported a beat, went to 11%, expect the possibility Yanai-san will be selling this week into the end of January, picking up the...

Travis Lundy

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Japan & Korea

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan & Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (14th Jan 2024) - Samsung, Lasertec, Ayala, Indigo, Amer, IPO Pipeline, 2023 Performance

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

Softbank (9984 JP): Big Fat NAV Discount, but Headwinds Outweigh Tailwinds Going Forward

​SoftBank group's NAV discount is 50%+, post T-Mobile shares windfall. PayPay IPO may boost SoftBank shares a bit but JPY strength detracts, Arm...

Victor Galliano

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

Fast Retailing reported a beat, went to 11%, expect the possibility Yanai-san will be selling this week into the end of January, picking up the...

Travis Lundy

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Japan & Korea

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan & Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (14th Jan 2024) - Samsung, Lasertec, Ayala, Indigo, Amer, IPO Pipeline, 2023 Performance

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

SoftBank group's NAV discount is 50%+, post T-Mobile shares windfall. PayPay IPO may boost SoftBank shares a bit but JPY strength detracts, Arm...