Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

<ul>
<li>With no stocks in inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.16% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$556m.</li>
<li>The impact of capping changes has doubled over the last month and there will be more changes from now till the official capping is done on 28 November.</li>
</ul>


With no stocks in inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.
Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.16% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$556m.
The impact of capping changes has doubled over the last month and there will be more changes from now till the official capping is done on 28 November.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$556m in December

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite mixed industrial data for domestic tourism in the Golden Week, we expect TC to continuously gain share, with strong hotel growth and long-haul travel recovery.</li><li>We forecast TC’s room night +100% (vs. 2019), air ticketing volume +30%, and trains volume at single-digit growth in the Golden Week.</li><li>This trend is largely in line with summer holiday. We keep confident on TC’s 3Q23E growth (rev forecast unchanged at +56% YoY, +55% vs. 2019 level), and expect 4Q23E rev +96% YoY (+51% vs. 2019), backed by strong hotel in the Golden Week and resilient demand from exam-related accommodation. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite mixed industrial data for domestic tourism in the Golden Week, we expect TC to continuously gain share, with strong hotel growth and long-haul travel recovery.We forecast TC’s room night +100% (vs. 2019), air ticketing volume +30%, and trains volume at single-digit growth in the Golden Week.This trend is largely in line with summer holiday. We keep confident on TC’s 3Q23E growth (rev forecast unchanged at +56% YoY, +55% vs. 2019 level), and expect 4Q23E rev +96% YoY (+51% vs. 2019), backed by strong hotel in the Golden Week and resilient demand from exam-related accommodation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Share Gain Continued in Golden Week

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises</li>
<li>The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?</li>
<li>Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so</li>
</ul>


August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?
Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a> had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.</li>
<li>A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy Friday with a bunch of indices rebalancing at the close and big volumes trading on a lot of stocks.

Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) had a good week with the stock rallying on Thursday and Friday on huge volumes amid expectations of upcoming passive buying.
A quiet week for ETFs with mainland China ETFs seeing some outflows after the huge inflows over the last couple of months.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$556m in December

No constituent changes expected in December. Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.16% (double from a month ago) and that will...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$556m in December

No constituent changes expected in December. Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.16% (double from a month ago) and that will...

Brian Freitas

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Share Gain Continued in Golden Week

Despite mixed industrial data for domestic tourism in the Golden Week, we expect TC to continuously gain share, with strong hotel growth and long...

CMB International

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, CSI500, STAR50, FnGuide Top10

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas