Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We do not expect there will be huge selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> immediately. However, there will be an overhang on the stock in the near to medium term.</li>
<li>JD.com could drop in the next few days as the ADR allotment is sold in the market. Shorts that have been built up could soak up some of the flow.</li>
<li>The big worry is the US$4bn of JD.com stock that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus</a> will receive. It is likely they will look to sell and use the cash to buy back their own stock.</li>
</ul>


We do not expect there will be huge selling in JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) immediately. However, there will be an overhang on the stock in the near to medium term.
JD.com could drop in the next few days as the ADR allotment is sold in the market. Shorts that have been built up could soak up some of the flow.
The big worry is the US$4bn of JD.com stock that Prosus will receive. It is likely they will look to sell and use the cash to buy back their own stock.


JD.com (9618 HK): Overhang a Bigger Worry than Immediate Selling

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> has been able to sustain its relative market share gains, in Chinese online retail sales, over the past two years, despite increased competitive pressure.</li>
<li>Recent weakness in its margin progression trajectory has cast doubts on its ability to realise its potential for long-term margin expansion.</li>
<li>With net cash at 31% of its market cap, relative valuation levels seem attractive.</li>
</ul>



JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) has been able to sustain its relative market share gains, in Chinese online retail sales, over the past two years, despite increased competitive pressure.
Recent weakness in its margin progression trajectory has cast doubts on its ability to realise its potential for long-term margin expansion.
With net cash at 31% of its market cap, relative valuation levels seem attractive.


JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JD Logistics (JDL) aims to raise around US$1.1bn, with US$400m coming via an institutional placement. The balance will be funded by issuing shares at the same price to JD.com.</li>
<li>We have covered the stock extensively, links to our previous notes are below.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


JD Logistics (JDL) aims to raise around US$1.1bn, with US$400m coming via an institutional placement. The balance will be funded by issuing shares at the same price to JD.com.
We have covered the stock extensively, links to our previous notes are below.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


JD Logistics Placement - Not Wholly Convinced, JD’s US$700m Support Helps

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457.326m Class A ordinary shares of JD.com.</li>
<li>While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a closer look at Prosus and its possible motivation/intention with its JD.com stake.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457.326m Class A ordinary shares of JD.com.
While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a closer look at Prosus and its possible motivation/intention with its JD.com stake.


JD.com Tencent Distribution - Updates on the Now US$15bn Overhang and the Prosus Angle

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company's revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.</li>
<li>Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.</li>
<li>Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.</li>
</ul>



Pinduoduo (PDD US) shares dropped 6.1% yesterday following the 4Q21 results as the company's revenue fell short of the consensus estimate by 8.9%.
Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the company’s user growth as MAUs declined by 8.0m.
Consensus is yet to factor in the impact on user growth through reduced marketing spend, which makes further downside to Pinduoduo shares possible.


China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

JD.com (9618 HK): Overhang a Bigger Worry than Immediate Selling

The JD.com shares from Tencent's in-specie dividend settle today. There will be immediate selling from the ADR depositaries, while Prosus' holding...

Brian Freitas

JD Logistics Placement - Not Wholly Convinced, JD’s US$700m Support Helps

JD Logistics (JDL) aims to raise around US$1.1bn, with US$400m coming via an institutional placement. The balance will be funded by issuing shares...

Sumeet Singh

JD.com Tencent Distribution - Updates on the Now US$15bn Overhang and the Prosus Angle

On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com. In this note we...

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo 4Q21: A Big Compromise

Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD.com (9618 HK): Overhang a Bigger Worry than Immediate Selling

The JD.com shares from Tencent's in-specie dividend settle today. There will be immediate selling from the ADR depositaries, while Prosus' holding...

Brian Freitas

JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?

In this insight, we analyse relative market share changes, key operational drivers, longer-term margin expansion trends, and take an updated look...

Wium Malan, CFA

JD Logistics Placement - Not Wholly Convinced, JD’s US$700m Support Helps

JD Logistics (JDL) aims to raise around US$1.1bn, with US$400m coming via an institutional placement. The balance will be funded by issuing shares...

Sumeet Singh

JD.com Tencent Distribution - Updates on the Now US$15bn Overhang and the Prosus Angle

On 23rd Dec 2021, Tencent declared a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com. In this note we...

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo 4Q21: A Big Compromise

Pinduoduo’s OP improved 223% QoQ to RMB 6.9bn (consensus RMB 3.2bn) through pushing back sales and marketing investments. However, it affected the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri