HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Porton Pharma Solutions / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Porton made a successful turnaround and the CGT business layout is also in the right direction. The US$217 million new order would improve the certainties of its 2022 performance.</li>
<li>The concerns on potential deterioration of international relations and the broken logic in CXO sector also apply to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porton-pharma-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14201:1" rel="noopener">Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH)</a>, which should be aware of by investors.</li>
<li>So, there is a long way to go for Porton to truly get into the first tier. It may not be a good buying point currently considering the high valuation.</li>
</ul>


Porton made a successful turnaround and the CGT business layout is also in the right direction. The US$217 million new order would improve the certainties of its 2022 performance.
The concerns on potential deterioration of international relations and the broken logic in CXO sector also apply to Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH), which should be aware of by investors.
So, there is a long way to go for Porton to truly get into the first tier. It may not be a good buying point currently considering the high valuation.


Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.CH) - Not Easy to Get into the First Tier

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.</li>
<li>The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.</li>
<li>If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.</li>
</ul>


For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.
The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.
If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.


Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the plunge of CXO/biotech sector last week, the potential impact, the afterwards investment logic, the outlook, and the scenarios when are suitable for related investment.</li>
<li>The big concern is that the underlying logic is shaking and the valuation system has switched. Investors could hope for the best,but it is recommended to prepare for the worst.</li>
<li>Either long or short, don't stand on the opposite side of the broken logic at least.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the plunge of CXO/biotech sector last week, the potential impact, the afterwards investment logic, the outlook, and the scenarios when are suitable for related investment.
The big concern is that the underlying logic is shaking and the valuation system has switched. Investors could hope for the best,but it is recommended to prepare for the worst.
Either long or short, don't stand on the opposite side of the broken logic at least.


The CXO/Biotech Plunge and the Afterwards Investment Logic (2022)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week. </li>
<li>The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Health Care (ΔA/H premium=+8.1ppt).  The average A/H premium of the the Health Care sector was also at 52 week high. </li>
<li>This is due to the A/H premia of many Health Care stocks at 52 week high: Wuxi Apptec, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Hepalink, and the increase of A/H for Join Lab, Haohai. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week. 
The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Health Care (ΔA/H premium=+8.1ppt).  The average A/H premium of the the Health Care sector was also at 52 week high. 
This is due to the A/H premia of many Health Care stocks at 52 week high: Wuxi Apptec, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Hepalink, and the increase of A/H for Join Lab, Haohai. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Health Care A/H Premium at 52W High

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that the Biden Administration would add two dozen Chinese companies to the entity list while there could be additions to the investment blacklist too.</li>
<li>There was a big drop in biotech stocks in Hong Kong on the news with the Hang Seng Hong Kong listed Biotech Index dropping over 7%.</li>
<li>Ahead of the publication of the lists on Thursday, we look at the potential impact on the stocks that could be added to either/both the lists.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that the Biden Administration would add two dozen Chinese companies to the entity list while there could be additions to the investment blacklist too.
There was a big drop in biotech stocks in Hong Kong on the news with the Hang Seng Hong Kong listed Biotech Index dropping over 7%.
Ahead of the publication of the lists on Thursday, we look at the potential impact on the stocks that could be added to either/both the lists.


Potential Blacklist Additions: Impact on China AI/Biotech Stocks

China

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Company Limited provides professional clinical research services for domestic and foreign pharmaceutical and health-related research and development. The Company's main services include clinical trial technology services, data management, and statistical analysis.

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (A) (300347 CH)

Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd. engages in discovery, development, and manufacturing spectrum for small molecule drugs, cell therapies, and gene therapies as well as providing testing services for medical devices and clinic research. The Company offers laboratory, clinical development, chemistry manufactory and control, and other services. Pharmaron Beijing conducts businesses based in China.

Joinn Laboratories (China) Co., Ltd. operates as a medicines development company. The Company offers drug development, pharmaceutical analysis, pharmacologic testing, and other related services. Joinn Laboratories (China) also provides pesticide and medical device safety evaluation services.

Maccura Biotechnology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, manufacturing, sales, and service of in-vitro diagnostic products. The Company provides biochemistry, immunity, rapid detection, blood, molecular diagnosis, pathology, raw materials, and more. Maccura Biotechnology conducts business in China.

Guangzhou Boji Medical & Biotechnological Co., Ltd. is an outsourcing drug research and development company. The Company provides pharmaceutical companies the ability to conduct its researches and developments at lower cost levels and offers support to bring drugs and devices to the Chinese market quicker.

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company's products include vitamin C, antibiotics and common generic drugs. The Company is also engages in the development of innovative drugs and antibiotics.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. researches, develops, and manufactures medical instruments. The Company's products include evacuated blood collection system, microbe specimen collection and transport, clinical testing reagent, equipment for clinical specimen testing & processing, etc.

Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets traditional Chinese medicines.  The Company also operates in pharmaceutical wholesale and retail trading, empty capsules manufacturing, and hotel operation.

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products which include generic drugs and their intermediates. The Company also undertakes contract research activities for other pharmaceutical companies.

Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. provides research tools and support services that enable drug discovery and development.  The Company provides the animal research models required in research and development for new drugs, devices, and therapies.  Charles River's customers include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, hospitals, and academic institutions.

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

Bio-Techne Corp develops, manufactures and sells biotechnology products and clinical diagnostic controls. The Company specializes in proteins, cytokines, growth factors, immunoassays and small molecules.

Bruker Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets proprietary  life science systems based on spectrometry technology platforms.  The Company  also sells a range of field analytical systems for substance detection and  pathogen identification.  Bruker develops life science and advanced materials  research tools based on X-ray technology.

QIAGEN N.V. is a global provider of Sample to Insight solutions to transform biological materials into valuable molecular insights. The Company provides its workflows to customers in Molecular Diagnostics (human healthcare), Applied Testing (forensics, veterinary testing and food safety), Pharma (pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies) and Academia (life sciences research).

Medpace Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides cardiovascular, hematology, oncology, neurology, pediatrics, nephrology, and diagnostic services. Medpace Holdings serves patients worldwide.

Avantor, Inc. manufactures and distributes chemicals, reagents, and laboratory supplies. The Company offers amino acids, silicones, bioreagents, denaturants, gas, solvents, stains, dyes, and minerals. Avantor serves biopharma, healthcare, education and government, advanced technologies, life sciences, and applied materials industries worldwide.

Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. is a multinational manufacturer and distributor of life science research products, clinical diagnostics, and analytical instrumentation.  The Company's products and systems separate complex chemical and biological materials, as well as identify, analyze, and purify their components.

Bachem Holding AG specializes in the development and manufacture of peptides and oligonucleotides. The Company provides products for research, clinical development and commercial application to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Bachem Holding serves customers worldwide.

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

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WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.CH) - Not Easy to Get into the First Tier

This insight analyzed Porton about its past development, how it successfully made turnarounds, the future outlook, and concerns on deterioration of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

This insight analyzed Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir after FDA EUA, the global market potential, the impact on China market and related...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The CXO/Biotech Plunge and the Afterwards Investment Logic (2022)

The article analyzed CXO plunge last week, the potential impact, the investment logic, the outlook on CXO and biotech, the scenarios when are...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A/H Premium Weekly: Health Care A/H Premium at 52W High

We highlight that A/H premium of Health Care sector at 52 week high due to rumor of entity list inclusion, this is due to A/H premia of many...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Potential Blacklist Additions: Impact on China AI/Biotech Stocks

An FT article said that the Biden administration would add 8 entities to the NS-CMIC list and 24 entities to the Entity List. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

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