Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.</li>
<li>Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.
Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
Inclusion in the KOSPI 200 looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.


Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> are potential deletions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> are potential adds.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.</li>
<li>There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a>. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> is lower given the recent surge in volume.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) are potential deletions while PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) are potential adds.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.
There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in JD Logistics. The impact on SenseTime is lower given the recent surge in volume.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.</li>
<li>CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology Co., an IT solution provider for enterprise-level users in China, plans to price its IPO by July 10, 2024 and raise ~HK$664M.
CICC is leading the offering in Hong Kong and the IPO is expected to be priced at HK$152.10 per H share, implying a market cap of ~HK$5.4B or ~$690M.
Cornerstone investors have agreed to acquire ~1.8M H shares, representing 41% of the offer shares or ~5% of the total outstanding shares.


Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.</li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Chenqi Technology Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chenqi-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40058:1" rel="noopener">Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK)</a> is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.</li>
<li>Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.


Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Shift Up will raise US$315m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$2.52bn. Inclusion in the KOSPI200 is likely in June25 while inclusion in global...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Voicecomm IPO Preview: Superior Growth Profile and Collaboration With Baidu on ERNIE Bot

Shanghai Voicecomm Information Technology is going to complete its IPO in Hong Kong next week. The offering is attractively priced vs. peers and my...

Andrei Zakharov

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

SOUTHBOUND saw its 4th net sell day since Chinese New Year last week. But the week ended up again. That is ~20 weeks in a row. But SOUTHBOUND...

Travis Lundy

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Sales Growth Accelerated but Sustainability in Question

Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of...

Ethan Aw

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