Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The share will begin to trade on 6th Aug 2021.</p></div><div><p>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. </p></div><div><p>Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.</p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-lack-of-lock-up-and-msci-ftse-index-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.</p></div>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The share will begin to trade on 6th Aug 2021.Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear, Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be and Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications.In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.

Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>, Russian internet play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Brazilian beverages giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a>, and a rebound call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">1</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Information Technology</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">2</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">4</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">5</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Real Estate</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">6</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">8</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">9</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left; width: 746px;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through New Oriental Education (EDU US), Russian internet play Yandex (YNDX US), Brazilian beverages giant Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ), and a rebound call on Tencent (700 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) 
Information Technology
India
19


2

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
12


3

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
92


4

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
88


5

China Resources Land (1109 HK) 
Real Estate
China
33


6

Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ) 
Consumer Staples
Brazil
56


7

NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) 
Communication
Korea (South)
18


8

Tencent (700 HK) 
Communication
China
61


9

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) 
Consumer Staples
India
70


10

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) 
Consumer Discretionary
India
89

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>China's Xinhua news agency released a report this morning describing online gaming as spiritual opium highlighting that the youth has suffered from the addictiveness of the online game. As a result, sentiment for online gaming companies was weak  in the morning. We are of the view that the regulation on the online gaming sector has been more of less done in the past and if there's any new tightening targeting the control of play time of the youth, it will be more likely fine-tuning from the past policy guidance. Therefore the impact on online gaming companies should be manageable. </p>

China's Xinhua news agency released a report this morning describing online gaming as spiritual opium highlighting that the youth has suffered from the addictiveness of the online game. As a result, sentiment for online gaming companies was weak  in the morning. We are of the view that the regulation on the online gaming sector has been more of less done in the past and if there's any new tightening targeting the control of play time of the youth, it will be more likely fine-tuning from the past policy guidance. Therefore the impact on online gaming companies should be manageable. 

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p data-testid="paragraph-0">On 3 August, a Chinese state media outlet (Economic Information Daily) mentioned that the online video games are like "spiritual opium." The article mentioned more curbs on the online video game industry are necessary as there are significant concerns that these games may be harming millions of people, especially the younger generation.</p>
<p data-testid="paragraph-0"><em><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/tencent-falls-after-china-media-calls-online-gaming-spiritual-opium-2021-08-03/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Economic Information Daily</a> stated that "No industry, no sport, can be allowed to develop in a way that will destroy a generation," likening online video games to "electronic drugs".</em></p>
</div><p>We believe that there is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online/mobile gaming sector in China which could severely impact major game companies such as Krafton. </p><p>We now believe that the valuation of Krafton is likely to drift towards the low-to-mid end of our valuation sensitivity analysis over the next 6 to 12 months, which would suggest implied market cap of 17.3 trillion won to 23 trillion won (344,487 won per share to 455,942 won per share). We continue to have a NEGATIVE view of the Krafton IPO. </p>


On 3 August, a Chinese state media outlet (Economic Information Daily) mentioned that the online video games are like "spiritual opium." The article mentioned more curbs on the online video game industry are necessary as there are significant concerns that these games may be harming millions of people, especially the younger generation.
Economic Information Daily stated that "No industry, no sport, can be allowed to develop in a way that will destroy a generation," likening online video games to "electronic drugs".
We believe that there is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online/mobile gaming sector in China which could severely impact major game companies such as Krafton. We now believe that the valuation of Krafton is likely to drift towards the low-to-mid end of our valuation sensitivity analysis over the next 6 to 12 months, which would suggest implied market cap of 17.3 trillion won to 23 trillion won (344,487 won per share to 455,942 won per share). We continue to have a NEGATIVE view of the Krafton IPO. 

Chinese Government to Crack Down on the Online Gaming Sector? A Big Negative for the Krafton IPO

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/krafton-ipo-this-should-be-pulled" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(1) Krafton IPO – This Should Be Pulled | Smartkarma </a>we said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Given the increasingly aggressive moves in China to reign in tech companies we also believe that greater regulation of mobile gaming overall is not impossible. Not only is there a strong gambling element but it is not likely to be viewed as positive for productivity at a time when labour cost inflation is an increasing problem. We believe stricter curbs on mobile gaming in China are a matter of time though we do not yet have a clear idea as to when this might occur.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Apparently that matter of time is <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Tencent-dives-after-Chinese-media-calls-gaming-spiritual-opium" target="_blank" rel="noopener">looking like it will be a lot sooner than we expected</a>.</p>

In (1) Krafton IPO – This Should Be Pulled | Smartkarma we said:

Given the increasingly aggressive moves in China to reign in tech companies we also believe that greater regulation of mobile gaming overall is not impossible. Not only is there a strong gambling element but it is not likely to be viewed as positive for productivity at a time when labour cost inflation is an increasing problem. We believe stricter curbs on mobile gaming in China are a matter of time though we do not yet have a clear idea as to when this might occur.

Apparently that matter of time is looking like it will be a lot sooner than we expected.

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Kakao Bank IPO Trading - One for Instis, Closer Look at FTSE and MSCI Inclusion. Remain Buyers

Kakao Bank, South Korea’s largest digital bank, raised up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao will hold a 27.26% stake post listing. The...

Sumeet Singh

Screening for GEMs: August 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tencent: Over-Reaction to Xinhua News

We analyze why the market over-react to the article published by Xinhua News Agency targeting the online gaming industry. We think Tencent is well...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Government to Crack Down on the Online Gaming Sector? A Big Negative for the Krafton IPO

There is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online gaming sector in China that could cause...

Douglas Kim

Krafton IPO - Didi'd by Spiritual Opium?

News laying the ground for tightened regulation on online gaming in China is hitting related stocks hard with many down 10%, but the juiciest short...

Mio Kato

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