Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a> getting Fast Entry into the index. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> as a potential deletion to make way for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a>. At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20694:1" rel="noopener">Sl Corp (005850 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seah-besteel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11760:1" rel="noopener">Seah Besteel (001430 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samyang-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9100:1" rel="noopener">Samyang Foods (003230 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15983:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a>. These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS) getting Fast Entry into the index. We see Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) as a potential deletion to make way for SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS). At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), Sl Corp (005850 KS) and Seah Besteel (001430 KS) replacing Samyang Foods (003230 KS), F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS). These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

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The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Established in 1991, Kyochon F&amp;B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting ready to complete its IPO in November. In the world of F&amp;B, you have Coke vs. Pepsi, Shake Shack vs. Five Guys, and McDonalds vs. Burger King. In the Korean fried chicken business, you have Kyochon vs. other major players including BBQ, BHC, and Pelicana. 
The IPO price range of Kychon F&amp;B is from 10,600 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $53 million to $61 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 267 billion won to 310 billion won, according to bankers' valuation. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 28 October 2020.
Kyochon F&amp;B is much smaller in size than the top three IPOs in Korea this year (SK Biopharm, Kakao Games, and Big Hit Entertainment). However, we believe that the Kyochon F&amp;B will draw a lot of interest among many institutional investors, especially that have long-term investment horizons. 
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The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Established in 1991, Kyochon F&amp;B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting ready to complete its IPO in November. In the world of F&amp;B, you have Coke vs. Pepsi, Shake Shack vs. Five Guys, and McDonalds vs. Burger King. In the Korean fried chicken business, you have Kyochon vs. other major players including BBQ, BHC, and Pelicana. 
The IPO price range of Kychon F&amp;B is from 10,600 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $53 million to $61 million. The expected market cap after the IPO is from 267 billion won to 310 billion won, according to bankers' valuation. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 28 October 2020.
Kyochon F&amp;B is much smaller in size than the top three IPOs in Korea this year (SK Biopharm, Kakao Games, and Big Hit Entertainment). However, we believe that the Kyochon F&amp;B will draw a lot of interest among many institutional investors, especially that have long-term investment horizons. 


Kyochon F&B IPO Preview - Korean Fried Chicken At Its Best

Equity Bottom-Up

New Tree Co is the third company we introduce in our "Korea Small Cap Gem" series. New Tree is one of the best up-and-coming companies in the "inner beauty" product segment, especially for eatable collagen products. They also have some outstanding health and diet food supplement products that should continue to thrive in the next few years.Millions of people in Korea often believe that eating foods that are rich in collagen such as 족발 (pigs’ feet) helps to beautify their skin. Other foods that help the body to produce collagen include bone broth, chicken, fish, egg whites, and citrus fruits. Because of the positive association with beautifying the skin and producing collagen, this is where the company's Evercollagen has achieved a big success.Valuation - We believe that the company's P/E multiples to rise to the 14 to 16x range over the next 12 months which would be closer to the industry average and as investors attach higher valuation multiple to this company, given the company's superior sales and net profit growth compared to its competitors. If we assume a 15x P/E based on the net profit of 22.6 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 339 billion won (37,375 won per share), which would be a 32% upside from current levels (28,300 won per share).

New Tree Co is the third company we introduce in our "Korea Small Cap Gem" series. New Tree is one of the best up-and-coming companies in the "inner beauty" product segment, especially for eatable collagen products. They also have some outstanding health and diet food supplement products that should continue to thrive in the next few years.Millions of people in Korea often believe that eating foods that are rich in collagen such as 족발 (pigs’ feet) helps to beautify their skin. Other foods that help the body to produce collagen include bone broth, chicken, fish, egg whites, and citrus fruits. Because of the positive association with beautifying the skin and producing collagen, this is where the company's Evercollagen has achieved a big success.Valuation - We believe that the company's P/E multiples to rise to the 14 to 16x range over the next 12 months which would be closer to the industry average and as investors attach higher valuation multiple to this company, given the company's superior sales and net profit growth compared to its competitors. If we assume a 15x P/E based on the net profit of 22.6 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 339 billion won (37,375 won per share), which would be a 32% upside from current levels (28,300 won per share).  

On 31 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binggrae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16424:1" rel="noopener">Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS)</a> announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitai-confectionery-foods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22709:1" rel="noopener">Haitai Confectionery &amp; Foods (101530 KS) </a>for 140 billion won. As a result of this acquisition, Binggrae will overtake Lotte Confectionery to become the number one player in the domestic ice cream industry with nearly 40% market share.Haitai Confectionery will use the proceeds from this sale to reduce its debt and further invest in its confectionery and snacks products. This M&amp;A deal appears to be a "win-win" deal for both companies as they can continue to focus on their core business strengths.It appears that the market has a more favorable view on Binggrae following this M&amp;A deal, whose shares have gone limit up (30%) on only 81k volume this morning, which is not materially higher than the trading volume in the past week. So there is a good chance that Binggrae's share price continues to go up sharply tomorrow.  On the other hand, the trading volume for Haitai Confectionery is already at 0.9 million (as of 10:30AM this morning), which is already up sharply versus the past week's levels.

On 31 March, Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of Haitai Confectionery &amp; Foods (101530 KS) for 140 billion won. As a result of this acquisition, Binggrae will overtake Lotte Confectionery to become the number one player in the domestic ice cream industry with nearly 40% market share.Haitai Confectionery will use the proceeds from this sale to reduce its debt and further invest in its confectionery and snacks products. This M&amp;A deal appears to be a "win-win" deal for both companies as they can continue to focus on their core business strengths.It appears that the market has a more favorable view on Binggrae following this M&amp;A deal, whose shares have gone limit up (30%) on only 81k volume this morning, which is not materially higher than the trading volume in the past week. So there is a good chance that Binggrae's share price continues to go up sharply tomorrow.  On the other hand, the trading volume for Haitai Confectionery is already at 0.9 million (as of 10:30AM this morning), which is already up sharply versus the past week's levels. 

Korea M&A Spotlight: Binggrae Acquires Haitai's Ice Cream Business

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Shin Kyuk-ho, the founder of Lotte Group, passed away yesterday. The total value of his wealth is a little more than ₩1tril. The local news outlets report that he hasn't left any will. So, the inheritance goes to the direct family members at a 1.5:1:1:1:1 ratio, 1.5 for his wife and 1 for each of the four children, including Shin Dong-bin.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/114/342/original/1.png?1579476850" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="114342"></figure>

Shin Kyuk-ho, the founder of Lotte Group, passed away yesterday. The total value of his wealth is a little more than ₩1tril. The local news outlets report that he hasn't left any will. So, the inheritance goes to the direct family members at a 1.5:1:1:1:1 ratio, 1.5 for his wife and 1 for each of the four children, including Shin Dong-bin.

The Market Is Overreacting to Lotte's Inheritance Situation: Creating an Opening for a Short

South Korea

Lotte Confectionery Co., Ltd. operates as a snack food manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells chewing gum, candy, biscuits, chocolates, pies, snacks, and other products. Lotte Confectionery markets its products worldwide.

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Lotte Confectionery (280360 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

We see 1 potential change in September and 3 potential changes at the KOSPI200 December review. Post the excellent returns at the June rebalance,...

Brian Freitas

Kyochon F&B IPO Preview - Korean Fried Chicken At Its Best

The fried chicken business is big in Korea. Kyochon F&B ("Kyochon Chicken") is the top fried chicken franchise in Korea and it is getting...

Douglas Kim

Korea Small Cap Gem #3: New Tree Co

New Tree Co is the third company we introduce in our "Korea Small Cap Gem" series. New Tree is one of the best up-and-coming companies in the...

Douglas Kim

Korea M&A Spotlight: Binggrae Acquires Haitai's Ice Cream Business

On 31 March, Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of Haitai Confectionery & Foods (101530...

Douglas Kim

The Market Is Overreacting to Lotte's Inheritance Situation: Creating an Opening for a Short

Shin Kyuk-ho, the founder of Lotte Group, passed away yesterday. The total value of his wealth is a little more than ₩1tril. The local news outlets...

Sanghyun Park

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