Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.</li>
<li>We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.</li>
<li>No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. </li>
</ul>


Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.
We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.
No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. 


<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.</li>
<li>The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600</li>
</ul>


Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.
The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum
We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600


Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

<ul>
<li>Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen</li>
<li>Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance</li>
<li>The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation </li>
</ul>


Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen
Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance
The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there are two TOPIX rebalance changes - the FFW review for July-September FY-end companies, and the annual liquidity factor adjustments.</li>
<li>This year, the former is replaced by the TOPIX FFW Methodology Change for the new Market Structure. This is a big change, but it will not necessarily overwhelm the latter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a>'s piece of 5 weeks ago discussing the Liquidity Factor basket has seen generally good performance. There are two days to go. </li>
</ul>


Every year in April there are two TOPIX rebalance changes - the FFW review for July-September FY-end companies, and the annual liquidity factor adjustments.
This year, the former is replaced by the TOPIX FFW Methodology Change for the new Market Structure. This is a big change, but it will not necessarily overwhelm the latter.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA's piece of 5 weeks ago discussing the Liquidity Factor basket has seen generally good performance. There are two days to go. 


The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

<ul>
<li>Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen</li>
<li>Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion</li>
<li>Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)</li>
</ul>


Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion
Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)


Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Trade is an esoteric rebalance accompanying the major FFW rebalance to be announced Thursday. The major names have seen...

Travis Lundy

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

​Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

​Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Trade is an esoteric rebalance accompanying the major FFW rebalance to be announced Thursday. The major names have seen...

Travis Lundy

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

​Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...