FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25895:1">Bitcoin</a> fell below the USD6,500 mark this week following the decision of the US SEC to delay the approval of the Bitcoin ETF of VanEck and SolidX. The US SEC was previously thought to be positive about the ETF but decided to postpone their decision on its approval to September 30th. Previously, in July, the US SEC rejected the proposal for a Bitcoin ETF by Winklevoss Brothers and postponed the review on five Bitcoin ETFs proposed by investment firm Direxion Asset Management. ETFs are long…

Bitcoin fell below the USD6,500 mark this week following the decision of the US SEC to delay the approval of the Bitcoin ETF of VanEck and SolidX. The US SEC was previously thought to be positive about the ETF but decided to postpone their decision on its approval to September 30th. Previously, in July, the US SEC rejected the proposal for a Bitcoin ETF by Winklevoss Brothers and postponed the review on five Bitcoin ETFs proposed by investment firm Direxion Asset Management. ETFs are long…

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Falls Below USD6,500 After SEC Delays ETF Approvals

Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy, Edelscourt

Albert Maass

Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy

Since the December peak in Bitcoin price, the crypto-currency volatility has collapsed. 
As risk has come down, does Bitcoin now deserve a larger allocation in our portfolio?
In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-risk-of-bitcoin" target="_blank">The Risk of Bitcoin</a>, published at the peak of last year's Bitcoin valuations, Pelham Smithers and I argued that based on the available data at the time, Bitcoin could be held on a risk-adjusted way to fit into an asset portfolio, but using risk parity the position should be small (about 4% of the equity allocation), as…

Since the December peak in Bitcoin price, the crypto-currency volatility has collapsed.  
As risk has come down, does Bitcoin now deserve a larger allocation in our portfolio?
In The Risk of Bitcoin, published at the peak of last year's Bitcoin valuations, Pelham Smithers and I argued that based on the available data at the time, Bitcoin could be held on a risk-adjusted way to fit into an asset portfolio, but using risk parity the position should be small (about 4% of the equity allocation), as…

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

China Economist

Kerry Liu

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the US. On 18 June, Mr Trump said that US may further identify another USD 200 bn worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. China US Trade war has escalated. Neither side seems to prepare for a retreat anytime soon. During our weekly call at Bondcritic, we exchanged view on what is next for the US, China, and the world.As far as we know…

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the US. On 18 June, Mr Trump said that US may further identify another USD 200 bn worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. China US Trade war has escalated. Neither side seems to prepare for a retreat anytime soon. During our weekly call at Bondcritic, we exchanged view on what is next for the US, China, and the world.As far as we know…

The China-US Trade War:  What Is the Next

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Bitcoin Falls Below USD6,500 After SEC Delays ETF Approvals

Bitcoin fell below the USD6,500 mark this week following the decision of the US SEC to delay the approval of the Bitcoin ETF of VanEck and SolidX....

Supun Walpola

The Risk of Bitcoin (Update)

Since the December peak in Bitcoin price, the crypto-currency volatility has collapsed. As risk has come down, does Bitcoin now deserve a larger...

Albert Maass

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

The China-US Trade War: What Is the Next

The Trump administration said on 15 June 2018 that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on USD 50 bn of Chinese products that are imported into the...

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)