Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

PowerGrid Infrastructure Inves / Equity Capital Markets

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.Our previous coverage of the IPO:<ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powergrid-invit-pre-ipo-always-going-to-be-tricky-with-a-declining-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield</a></li></ul>

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust (PGIT) aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission assets of its sponsor Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). PGCIL is a central public sector enterprise which has been listed since 2007. PGIT will initially own five assets with a total network of 11 power transmission lines of approximately 3,698.59 ckm and three substations having 6,630 Megavolt amperes (MVA) of aggregate transformation capacity, as of Sep 2020, across five states in India. The total valuation of the assets was INR105bn (US$1.4bn) as of Sep 2020. These assets were awarded to PGCIL on a  build-own-operate-maintain (BOOM) basis. Therefore, the assets are operated under a long 35 years service agreement with largely pre-fixed revenue based on availability. In that sense, they will provide stable returns. However, its revenue terms are structured in such a way that its yield will continue to decline, while its sponsor’s government ownership will mean that it's unlikely to diversify away from transmission assets with declining yield.Our previous coverage of the IPO:POWERGRID InvIT Pre-IPO - Always going to be tricky with a declining yield

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Improved Operating Performance: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] reported FY 4Q21 earnings of INR 44.0 bn, decreasing INR 5.4 bn (10.9%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, FY 4Q21 core operating results increased INR 2.5 bn (6.5%) over the same period. In our view, ICICI’s results were of higher quality than last quarter; and*Credit Improvement Coming: With NCOs of INR 42.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs actually continued to increase - up INR 34.9 bn or at a decelerated pace of 33.1% on an annualized basis. With credit quality continuing to breakdown at ICICI and virtually every financial institution in India, we find that ICICI – like its competitors, is still short on reserves to the tune of INR 229 bn or four quarters of PBT.

*Improved Operating Performance: ICICI Bank (ICICIBC.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] reported FY 4Q21 earnings of INR 44.0 bn, decreasing INR 5.4 bn (10.9%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, FY 4Q21 core operating results increased INR 2.5 bn (6.5%) over the same period. In our view, ICICI’s results were of higher quality than last quarter; and*Credit Improvement Coming: With NCOs of INR 42.2 bn, we find that net new NPLs actually continued to increase - up INR 34.9 bn or at a decelerated pace of 33.1% on an annualized basis. With credit quality continuing to breakdown at ICICI and virtually every financial institution in India, we find that ICICI – like its competitors, is still short on reserves to the tune of INR 229 bn or four quarters of PBT.

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. In addition, its 9M21 performance was propped by a single EV customer. While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. In addition, its 9M21 performance was propped by a single EV customer. While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A couple of days ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiabulls-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13086:1" rel="noopener">Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN)</a> announced a co-lending partnership with a peer HFC (Housing Finance Company), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>. IHFL's promoter and MD, Gagan Banga, mentioned that IHFL is reorienting its business model completely towards being an origination and servicing platform rather than being a full-fledged lender. This announcement by IHFL, one of the top five HFCs in India, suggests that co-lending is increasingly gaining traction within the NBFC/HFC industry.
A few days ago, we had highlighted how the upcoming EASE 4.0 program is also likely to promote co-lending by PSBs and how Edelweiss could be a beneficiary of this. For more details, please refer to this - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/edelweiss-a-beneficiary-of-potentially-increased-adoption-of-co-lending-by-psbs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50237" rel="noopener">Edelweiss: A Beneficiary of Potentially Increased Adoption of Co-Lending by PSBs</a>.

A couple of days ago, Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) announced a co-lending partnership with a peer HFC (Housing Finance Company), HDFC Limited (HDFC IN). IHFL's promoter and MD, Gagan Banga, mentioned that IHFL is reorienting its business model completely towards being an origination and servicing platform rather than being a full-fledged lender. This announcement by IHFL, one of the top five HFCs in India, suggests that co-lending is increasingly gaining traction within the NBFC/HFC industry.
A few days ago, we had highlighted how the upcoming EASE 4.0 program is also likely to promote co-lending by PSBs and how Edelweiss could be a beneficiary of this. For more details, please refer to this - Edelweiss: A Beneficiary of Potentially Increased Adoption of Co-Lending by PSBs.

Indian NBFCs: Co-Lending Seems to Be Gaining Traction - Indiabulls/HDFC New Partners in Town

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.</div><div>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</div><div>
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.


India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

POWERGRID InvIT IPO - Assets Are Fine, Declining Yield Is Not

POWERGRID Infrastructure Investment Trust aims to raise around US$1bn in its India IPO. PGIT is an investment trust setup to own transmission...

Sumeet Singh

ICICI Bank – Much Better

ICICI BANK: ICICI reported a 6.5% linked quarter improvement in FY 4Q21 operating results. Credit weakness is still there, but the breakdown in net...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

Indian NBFCs: Co-Lending Seems to Be Gaining Traction - Indiabulls/HDFC New Partners in Town

Recent announcement by Indiabulls HF, a large HFC, to completely reorient its business model towards co-lending suggests that co-lending as a...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Pair Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We highlight potential trades among liquid large cap Asian financial stocks that are correlated and exhibit mean reversion. We recommend closing...

Brian Freitas

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