Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our most recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-and-ping-an-sliding-toward-our-bear-objectives" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19724">Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives</a> outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward tactical support worthy of an upside bounce attempt with pivot levels that will either reject this bounce or confirm a low and break higher, acting as a lead bias for HK. We also take a deeper look into CCB, ICBC and Bank of China key support zones.This chart was published in our macro product over the weekend and outlined buy levels to try the long side…

Our most recent insight Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward tactical support worthy of an upside bounce attempt with pivot levels that will either reject this bounce or confirm a low and break higher, acting as a lead bias for HK. We also take a deeper look into CCB, ICBC and Bank of China key support zones.This chart was published in our macro product over the weekend and outlined buy levels to try the long side…

Tencent and Ping An Tactical Long, Pivots and H Bank Supports

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost deposit base; and are considered the cornerstone of the country’s banking system. Growth in funding costs in the latest year at these four banks is pedestrian at +6% YoY. They operate in a different realm to city and regional banks. Average funding costs rose 29% last year for China’s 23 other banks. Even this belies the 40-72% growth in funding for…

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost deposit base; and are considered the cornerstone of the country’s banking system. Growth in funding costs in the latest year at these four banks is pedestrian at +6% YoY. They operate in a different realm to city and regional banks. Average funding costs rose 29% last year for China’s 23 other banks. Even this belies the 40-72% growth in funding for…

China Banks – Radical Divergence in Funding Cost Growth

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Agricultural Bank Of China / Equity Bottom-Up

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising USD 15.8 bn in fresh equity concurrent with the China Bank Regulatory Commission’s (CBRC) new guidelines for commercial banks to expand their use of perpetual capital bonds, tier-2 capital with conversion features, convertible bonds, and total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) instruments.* In Mainland China, You Can Never Have Enough Capital: By our…

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts...

Stewart Paterson

Tencent and Ping An Tactical Long, Pivots and H Bank Supports

Our most recent insight Tencent and Ping An Sliding Toward Our Bear Objectives outlined macro downside targets and that we were edging toward...

Thomas Schroeder

China Banks – Radical Divergence in Funding Cost Growth

The largest four banks in China have an implicit guarantee from the government; are ubiquitous across the country; have a huge and sticky low-cost...

Daniel Tabbush

Agricultural Bank of China - Capital Overhang Persists

* Well-Orchestrated Capital Raise Coupled With More Regulatory Forbearance: Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) [ABC] announced plans on raising...

Thomas J. Monaco

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