Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="">
<li>The non-cash payments market continues to grow at a double-digit rate in Brazil, driven primarily by growing usage of credit and debit cards</li>
<li>De-regulation and new entrants have brought challenges for the incumbents, especially for the largest player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24750" target="_blank">Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ)</a>, with the challengers taking market share, squeezing margins and promoting better service for SME merchants in particular</li>
<li>Competitive pressures continue in the Brazil payments market, reflected in the declining merchant discount rate (MDR), lower rental rates and sale prices for POS terminals, as well as pressure on the commissions for early payment of merchant receivables; the near-term prospects for Cielo remain challenging in our view</li>
<li>Due to the ongoing headwinds, we expect Cielo to show negative earnings growth to 2021; management has announced that Cielo will defend its market share against the challengers; we see further downside risk to consensus earnings and the real risk of a greater than consensus 2019 DPS cut</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27564" target="_blank">StoneCo Ltd (STNE US)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27939" target="_blank">Pagseguro Digital Ltd (PAGS US)</a> are two of the payment challengers in this de-regulated market, growing faster than the Brazilian non-cash transactions market and taking incumbents' market share; we see StoneCo to be the preferred entity to PagSeguro, based on StoneCo’s higher revenue yielding SME segment of focus and on its more attractive PEG ratio valuation</li>
</ul>


The non-cash payments market continues to grow at a double-digit rate in Brazil, driven primarily by growing usage of credit and debit cards
De-regulation and new entrants have brought challenges for the incumbents, especially for the largest player Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ), with the challengers taking market share, squeezing margins and promoting better service for SME merchants in particular
Competitive pressures continue in the Brazil payments market, reflected in the declining merchant discount rate (MDR), lower rental rates and sale prices for POS terminals, as well as pressure on the commissions for early payment of merchant receivables; the near-term prospects for Cielo remain challenging in our view
Due to the ongoing headwinds, we expect Cielo to show negative earnings growth to 2021; management has announced that Cielo will defend its market share against the challengers; we see further downside risk to consensus earnings and the real risk of a greater than consensus 2019 DPS cut

StoneCo Ltd (STNE US)and Pagseguro Digital Ltd (PAGS US) are two of the payment challengers in this de-regulated market, growing faster than the Brazilian non-cash transactions market and taking incumbents' market share; we see StoneCo to be the preferred entity to PagSeguro, based on StoneCo’s higher revenue yielding SME segment of focus and on its more attractive PEG ratio valuation


Brazilian Payments Report: Cielo on the Defensive Against Disruptive Challengers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.</li>
<li>Our top pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24564" target="_blank">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ)</a> , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.</li>
<li>Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.</li>
</ul>


A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.
Our top pick is Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ) , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.
Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.


Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:<ul><li>As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. </li><li>Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.</li><li>EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.</li><li>Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.</li></ul>

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

Brazil

Banco Bradesco S.A. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers business loans, personal credit, mortgages, lease financing, mutual funds, securities brokerage, and Internet banking services.  Bradesco operates in Brazil and Argentina, the United States, the Cayman Islands, and the United Kingdom.  Bradesco offers credit cards, insurance, and pension funds.

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Banco Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ)

Brazilian Payments Report: Cielo on the Defensive Against Disruptive Challengers

The non-cash payments market continues to grow at a double-digit rate in Brazil, driven primarily by growing usage of credit and debit...

Boost Research

Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among...

Boost Research

EM Equity Strategy: Overweight BRIC

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership. In addition...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes: As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases....

Vermilion Research

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