Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Itau Unibanco Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> shares have outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bradesco-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24569:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ)</a> shares over the last six months - partly due to solid 3Q19 figures from Itau with resilience in margins, and a gain from the forthcoming XP IPO - with a widening differential in PBV ratios</li>
<li>We believe that the PBV ratio gap differential has widened out too far, with Itau's PBV ratio close to its three year peak, and we expect Itau may have more fundamental challenges going forward than Bradesco</li>
<li>We think that Itau's cost of credit already bottomed out in 4Q18, and it is taking on more risk in growing its loan portfolio share to small and medium sized corporates and credit card lending,  whilst Bradesco is more focused on payroll lending and its cost of risk to 3Q19 continues to fall</li>
<li>Itau also has the challenge of extracting higher returns from its ex-Brazil LatAm operations in Chile, Colombia and Argentina, which fall well short of the Brazil operations, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-corpbanca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27602:1" rel="noopener">Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI)</a> improving returns but only slowly</li>
<li>One important positive argument in favour of Bradesco is the prospect of sustainably low benchmark interest rates going forward in Brazil; Bradesco's insurance and pensions operations account for a meaningful share of group earnings (c30%), and the insurance arm's returns are inversely correlated to benchmark interest rates</li>
<li>We recommend investors to go long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bradesco-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24569:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ)</a> and, in a pairs trade, we would also recommend selling or shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> </li>
<li>Risks to our thesis include better than expected credit quality at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> driving ROE higher, and a faster turnaround at Itau Corpbanca; also poorer than expected results from Bradesco's insurance arm and worse than expected credit quality at Bradesco, leading to a higher cost of risk</li>
</ul>



Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) shares have outperformed Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) shares over the last six months - partly due to solid 3Q19 figures from Itau with resilience in margins, and a gain from the forthcoming XP IPO - with a widening differential in PBV ratios
We believe that the PBV ratio gap differential has widened out too far, with Itau's PBV ratio close to its three year peak, and we expect Itau may have more fundamental challenges going forward than Bradesco
We think that Itau's cost of credit already bottomed out in 4Q18, and it is taking on more risk in growing its loan portfolio share to small and medium sized corporates and credit card lending,  whilst Bradesco is more focused on payroll lending and its cost of risk to 3Q19 continues to fall
Itau also has the challenge of extracting higher returns from its ex-Brazil LatAm operations in Chile, Colombia and Argentina, which fall well short of the Brazil operations, with Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) improving returns but only slowly
One important positive argument in favour of Bradesco is the prospect of sustainably low benchmark interest rates going forward in Brazil; Bradesco's insurance and pensions operations account for a meaningful share of group earnings (c30%), and the insurance arm's returns are inversely correlated to benchmark interest rates
We recommend investors to go long Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) and, in a pairs trade, we would also recommend selling or shorting Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) 
Risks to our thesis include better than expected credit quality at Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) driving ROE higher, and a faster turnaround at Itau Corpbanca; also poorer than expected results from Bradesco's insurance arm and worse than expected credit quality at Bradesco, leading to a higher cost of risk


Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ) PBV Discount to Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4 BZ) Set to Narrow

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Trawling through  &gt;1500 global banks, based on the last quarter of reported Balance Sheets, we apply the discipline of the PH Score™ , a value-quality fundamental momentum screen, plus a low RSI screen, and a low Franchise Valuation (FV) screen to deliver our latest rankings for global banks.While not all of top decile 1 scores are a buy - some are value traps while others maybe somewhat small and obscure and traded sparsely- the bottom decile names should awaken caution. We would be hard pressed to recommend some of the more popular and fashionable names from the bottom decile. Names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/547" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> , Credicorp of Peru, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/440" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24411" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24411:1">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB US)</a> are EM favourites. Their share prices have performed well for an extended period and thus carry valuation risk. They represent pricey quality in some cases. They are not priced for disappointment but rather for hope. Are the constituents of the bottom decile not fertile grounds for short sellers?Why pay top dollar for a bank franchise given risks related to domestic (let alone global) politics and the economy? Some investors and analysts have expressed "inspiration" for developments in Brazil and Argentina. But Brazilian bonds are now trading as if the country is Investment Grade again. (This is relevant for banks especially). Guedes and co. may deliver on pension/social security reform. If so, prices will become even more inflated. But what happens if they don't deliver on reform? Why pay top dollar for hope given the ramp up in prices already? Argentina is an even more fragile "hope narrative". More of a "Hope take 2". Similar to Brazil, bank Franchise Valuations are elevated. While the current account adjustment and easing inflation are to be expected, the political and social scene will be a challenge. LATAM seems to be "hot" again with investment bankers talking of resilience. But resilience is different from valuation. Banks from Chile, Peru, and Colombia feature in the bottom decile too. If an investor wants to be in these markets and desires bank exposure, surely it makes sense to look for the best value on offer. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27802" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27802:1">Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (AVAL CB)</a> may represent one such opportunity.Our bottom decile rankings feature a great deal of banks from Indonesia. In a promising market such as Indonesia, given bank valuations, one needs to tread extremely carefully to not end up paying over the odds, to not pay for extrapolation. In addition, India is a susceptible jurisdiction for any bank operating there - no bank is "superhuman" and especially not at the prices on offer for the popular private sector "winners". Saudi Arabia is another market that suddenly became popular last year. We are mindful of valuations and FX.Does it not make more sense to look at opportunity in the top decile? While some of the names here will be too small or illiquid (mea culpa), there are genuine portfolio candidates. South Korea stands out in the rankings. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27497" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27497:1">Woori Bank (WF US)</a> is top of the rankings after a share price plunge related to a stock overhang but this will pass. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12843" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12843:1">Hana Financial (086790 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27498" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27498:1">Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK LX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6138" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> are portfolio candidates. Elsewhere, Russia and Vietnam rightly feature while Sri Lanka and Pakistan contribute some names despite very real political and macro risks. We would caution on some of the relatively small Chinese names but recommend the big 4 versus EM peers - they are not expensive. In fact some of the big 4 feature in decile 2 of our rankings. There are many Japanese banks here too. And many, like some Chinese lenders, are cheap for a reason. While the technical picture for Japanese banks is bearish, at some stage selective weeding out of opportunity within Japan's banking sector may be rewarding. The megabanks are certainly not dear. Europe is another matter. Despite valuations, we are cautious on French lenders and on German consolidation narratives - did a merger of 2 weak banks ever deliver shareholder value? The inclusion of two Romanian banks in the top decile is somewhat of a headscratcher. These are perfectly investable opportunities but share prices have been poor of late.

Trawling through  &gt;1500 global banks, based on the last quarter of reported Balance Sheets, we apply the discipline of the PH Score™ , a value-quality fundamental momentum screen, plus a low RSI screen, and a low Franchise Valuation (FV) screen to deliver our latest rankings for global banks.While not all of top decile 1 scores are a buy - some are value traps while others maybe somewhat small and obscure and traded sparsely- the bottom decile names should awaken caution. We would be hard pressed to recommend some of the more popular and fashionable names from the bottom decile. Names such as ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) , Credicorp of Peru, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB US) are EM favourites. Their share prices have performed well for an extended period and thus carry valuation risk. They represent pricey quality in some cases. They are not priced for disappointment but rather for hope. Are the constituents of the bottom decile not fertile grounds for short sellers?Why pay top dollar for a bank franchise given risks related to domestic (let alone global) politics and the economy? Some investors and analysts have expressed "inspiration" for developments in Brazil and Argentina. But Brazilian bonds are now trading as if the country is Investment Grade again. (This is relevant for banks especially). Guedes and co. may deliver on pension/social security reform. If so, prices will become even more inflated. But what happens if they don't deliver on reform? Why pay top dollar for hope given the ramp up in prices already? Argentina is an even more fragile "hope narrative". More of a "Hope take 2". Similar to Brazil, bank Franchise Valuations are elevated. While the current account adjustment and easing inflation are to be expected, the political and social scene will be a challenge. LATAM seems to be "hot" again with investment bankers talking of resilience. But resilience is different from valuation. Banks from Chile, Peru, and Colombia feature in the bottom decile too. If an investor wants to be in these markets and desires bank exposure, surely it makes sense to look for the best value on offer. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (AVAL CB) may represent one such opportunity.Our bottom decile rankings feature a great deal of banks from Indonesia. In a promising market such as Indonesia, given bank valuations, one needs to tread extremely carefully to not end up paying over the odds, to not pay for extrapolation. In addition, India is a susceptible jurisdiction for any bank operating there - no bank is "superhuman" and especially not at the prices on offer for the popular private sector "winners". Saudi Arabia is another market that suddenly became popular last year. We are mindful of valuations and FX.Does it not make more sense to look at opportunity in the top decile? While some of the names here will be too small or illiquid (mea culpa), there are genuine portfolio candidates. South Korea stands out in the rankings. Woori Bank (WF US) is top of the rankings after a share price plunge related to a stock overhang but this will pass. Hana Financial (086790 KS) , Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK LX) and DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) are portfolio candidates. Elsewhere, Russia and Vietnam rightly feature while Sri Lanka and Pakistan contribute some names despite very real political and macro risks. We would caution on some of the relatively small Chinese names but recommend the big 4 versus EM peers - they are not expensive. In fact some of the big 4 feature in decile 2 of our rankings. There are many Japanese banks here too. And many, like some Chinese lenders, are cheap for a reason. While the technical picture for Japanese banks is bearish, at some stage selective weeding out of opportunity within Japan's banking sector may be rewarding. The megabanks are certainly not dear. Europe is another matter. Despite valuations, we are cautious on French lenders and on German consolidation narratives - did a merger of 2 weak banks ever deliver shareholder value? The inclusion of two Romanian banks in the top decile is somewhat of a headscratcher. These are perfectly investable opportunities but share prices have been poor of late.

Global Banks: Why Buy High Into Popular and Fashionable Banks and Markets? Be Contrarian and Buy Low

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<ul>
<li>A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.</li>
<li>Our top pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24564" target="_blank">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ)</a> , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.</li>
<li>Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.</li>
</ul>


A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.
Our top pick is Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ) , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.
Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.


Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:• Technology: Overweight.  Technology remains a leadership Sector as uptrends and significant bases remain intact. The recent pullback has resulted in a number of groups breaking to new highs especially in the Software related groups. Historically investors will move to software related names to reduce risk as these companies often have a source of reoccurring revenue. Large- and Mid-cap semiconductors have also been quite resilient, whereas small- and micro-cap semis are seeing breakdowns in price and RS.• Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to plod up and to the right. Banks and thrifts, exchanges, investing banking and brokerage, pawn shops and Latin/South American banks look attractive.

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:• Technology: Overweight.  Technology remains a leadership Sector as uptrends and significant bases remain intact. The recent pullback has resulted in a number of groups breaking to new highs especially in the Software related groups. Historically investors will move to software related names to reduce risk as these companies often have a source of reoccurring revenue. Large- and Mid-cap semiconductors have also been quite resilient, whereas small- and micro-cap semis are seeing breakdowns in price and RS.• Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to plod up and to the right. Banks and thrifts, exchanges, investing banking and brokerage, pawn shops and Latin/South American banks look attractive.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Are Leadership, Small-Caps Are Closing the Gap.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Brazil

Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. attracts deposits and offer retail, commercial, corporate, and private banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, financial management, insurance, pension plans, treasury services, mortgage loans, lease financing, securities brokerage, and foreign exchange services.

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Itau Unibanco Holding (ITUB US)

Bradesco (BBDC4 BZ) PBV Discount to Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4 BZ) Set to Narrow

Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) shares have outperformed Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) shares over the last six months - partly due to solid...

Victor Galliano

Global Banks: Why Buy High Into Popular and Fashionable Banks and Markets? Be Contrarian and Buy Low

Trawling through >1500 global banks, based on the last quarter of reported Balance Sheets, we apply the discipline of the PH Score™ , a...

Paul Hollingworth

Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among...

Boost Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Are Leadership, Small-Caps Are Closing the Gap.

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:•...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

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