Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week that trend moderated significantly.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND breaks a 17-week inflow streak with HK$2.1bn of net outflows entirely driven, it appears, by relatively few accounts punting large size in local (HK-listed) ETFs</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week that trend moderated significantly.
SOUTHBOUND breaks a 17-week inflow streak with HK$2.1bn of net outflows entirely driven, it appears, by relatively few accounts punting large size in local (HK-listed) ETFs


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 17 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs Pause, Tech + ETFs Break 16wk Inflow Streak

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>For a second review running, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> has avoided being deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>That means <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.</li>
<li>There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.</li>
</ul>


For a second review running, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) has avoided being deleted from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
That means China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.
There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 17th): Meituan, Tencent, Xiaomi

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 10th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 10th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex, Petrochina.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex, Petrochina

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>XPeng C3Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in line, 28% and 68% worse than our estimates, main reason is G3’s End-Of-Production charge to the gross margin</li>
<li>We expect XPEV to experience tough transition in 2024 since product line which spans across sedan and SUV, shall experience severe competition at a time when its differentiation is eroding.</li>
<li>We prefer to wait out this period; we cut TP of XPEV from US$18 to US$9 and downgrade to SELL.</li>
</ul>


XPeng C3Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in line, 28% and 68% worse than our estimates, main reason is G3’s End-Of-Production charge to the gross margin
We expect XPEV to experience tough transition in 2024 since product line which spans across sedan and SUV, shall experience severe competition at a time when its differentiation is eroding.
We prefer to wait out this period; we cut TP of XPEV from US$18 to US$9 and downgrade to SELL.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 17 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs Pause, Tech + ETFs Break 16wk Inflow Streak

HK Connect (SOUTHBOUND) saw its first net sell week in four months this past week, with the net sell driven by large ETF sell flows from a small...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

In a surprise, there are no constituent changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.85bn...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 17th): Meituan, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 10th and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain

XPeng reported Q3 2023 results with losses worse than expected due to an End-Of-Production charge, and faces tough competition and eroding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 17 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs Pause, Tech + ETFs Break 16wk Inflow Streak

HK Connect (SOUTHBOUND) saw its first net sell week in four months this past week, with the net sell driven by large ETF sell flows from a small...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

In a surprise, there are no constituent changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.85bn...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 17th): Meituan, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hongkong connect flows for Meituan, Tencent and Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 10th and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, Yum China, Hkex,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$9) Rating Change]: Strategic Options May Come Late and Uncertain

​XPeng reported Q3 2023 results with losses worse than expected due to an End-Of-Production charge, and faces tough competition and eroding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

XPeng reported Q3 2023 results with losses worse than expected due to an End-Of-Production charge, and faces tough competition and eroding...