Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.</li>
<li>From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.</li>
<li>Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.
From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.
Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Average holding weights in China &amp; HK have fallen to their lowest levels since late 2019. From a peak of 38.26% in October 2020, exposure has dropped to 29.01%</li>
<li>China underweights have contracted due to a combination of Russian overweights being displaced, and on the back of significant falls in the price of key index holdings.</li>
<li>China is still the largest holding in EM by a margin, but was costly to EM managers over the last year.  Active managers may be tempted to reduce allocations.</li>
</ul>


Average holding weights in China &amp; HK have fallen to their lowest levels since late 2019. From a peak of 38.26% in October 2020, exposure has dropped to 29.01%
China underweights have contracted due to a combination of Russian overweights being displaced, and on the back of significant falls in the price of key index holdings.
China is still the largest holding in EM by a margin, but was costly to EM managers over the last year.  Active managers may be tempted to reduce allocations.


China:  EM Investors Precariously Positioned

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK). </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK). 


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Southbound Chinese Bottom Fishing

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 4th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest increase in JD, Meituan, and Alibaba. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 4th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest increase in JD, Meituan, and Alibaba. 


Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

From 31 Jan to 4 March, most shorted stocks are Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi...

Brian Freitas

China: EM Investors Precariously Positioned

China is still the largest holding in EM, but was costly to EM funds over the last year. In the wake of the Russia-Sino alliance, active managers...

Steven Holden

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Southbound Chinese Bottom Fishing

We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect Southbound inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK) despite sharp fall of share...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest: JD, Meituan, Alibaba

We highlight week on week short interest increases in JD (9618 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), and Alibaba (9988 HK) based on the latest HK SFC Short...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

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