Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month</li>
<li>What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks</li>
</ul>


We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.</li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>. Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. </li>
</ul>


The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for Air China Ltd (753 HK). 
While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.
We prefer Air China Ltd (753 HK) given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 23rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Sunny Optical, Js Global Life, Trip.Com, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 23rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Sunny Optical, Js Global Life, Trip.Com, Meituan.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Sunny Optical, JS Global Life, Trip.Com, Meituan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops</li>
<li>A residual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn't mean much, but it's an interesting artefact. </li>
</ul>


The Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. 

Swire Pacific (19 HK) was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops
A residual NTT (9432 JP) individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn't mean much, but it's an interesting artefact. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

We see mixed signals in June outbound travel activity, and the recovery in domestic activity continued at its modest pace. For value investors,...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

The underperformance of Chinese airlines is unjustified. Recovery of international routes over the next 12 months and exposure to Cathay Pacific...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Sunny Optical, JS Global Life, Trip.Com, Meituan

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 23rd and highlight short interest changes in Sunny Optical, Js Global...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

If the discount to NAV was warranted before this latest news, then Swire is a clear buy - there is no justification for assigning a similar...

David Blennerhassett

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