Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins</li>
<li>The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3</li>
<li>SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag</li>
</ul>


Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins
The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3
SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag


The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

<ul>
<li>In this month's Tracker, we focus on a new price war among the 'sort &amp; transport' names</li>
<li>Q3 ASPs at these express companies fell by -12% Y/Y, and volume growth softened</li>
<li>We believe margins are under increasing pressure in China's mainstream express segment</li>
</ul>


In this month's Tracker, we focus on a new price war among the 'sort &amp; transport' names
Q3 ASPs at these express companies fell by -12% Y/Y, and volume growth softened
We believe margins are under increasing pressure in China's mainstream express segment


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China's 'Sort & Transport' Express Names

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>ZTO’s revenue / net profit in 2Q23 came in at RMB9.7bn / RMB2.54bn, up 13%/41% in 2Q23.</li><li>The excellent cost control (unit cost -18% YoY) enabled ZTO to boost the unit gross margin by 22% YoY to RMB0.43/parcel.</li><li>ZTO maintains the full year parcel volume growth target to 20-24% YoY. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ZTO’s revenue / net profit in 2Q23 came in at RMB9.7bn / RMB2.54bn, up 13%/41% in 2Q23.The excellent cost control (unit cost -18% YoY) enabled ZTO to boost the unit gross margin by 22% YoY to RMB0.43/parcel.ZTO maintains the full year parcel volume growth target to 20-24% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – 2Q23 Net Profit +41% YoY on Excellent Cost Control

<ul>
<li>Solid Q2 results from ZTO, with deep unit cost reductions offseting weak pricing</li>
<li>But ultimately, Q2/H1 results are merely in-line with guidance -- not better, nor worse</li>
<li>In this environment, it's difficult to see what will move ZTO out of recent trading range</li>
</ul>


Solid Q2 results from ZTO, with deep unit cost reductions offseting weak pricing
But ultimately, Q2/H1 results are merely in-line with guidance -- not better, nor worse
In this environment, it's difficult to see what will move ZTO out of recent trading range


ZTO Express Q2 Results: Strong on Volume | Weak on Price | Margins Up in Q2, But H2 Much Tougher

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong</li>
<li>We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses</li>
<li>We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time</li>
</ul>


Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong
We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses
We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time


Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

A new price war among China's 'sort and transport' express companies drove down the group's core margins in Q3, and we expect the pain to continue...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China's 'Sort & Transport' Express Names

In this insight we discuss a developing price war among China's 'sort and transport' express names, which likely added to margin pressures on these...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (ZTO US) – 2Q23 Net Profit +41% YoY on Excellent Cost Control

The excellent cost control (unit cost -18% YoY) enabled ZTO to boost the unit gross margin by 22% YoY to RMB0.43/parcel. ZTO maintains the full...

CMB International

ZTO Express Q2 Results: Strong on Volume | Weak on Price | Margins Up in Q2, But H2 Much Tougher

ZTO gained volume share in Q2, which allowed it to beat down unit costs and expand margins. Given recent price erosion, we think ZTO is unlikely to...

Tracking Traffic

Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

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