Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.</li>
<li>The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.</li>
<li>The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.</li>
</ul>


The opposition’s pushing a Commercial Act amendment, and to gain ruling party support, they might strategically ease up on the dividend tax issue—classic quid pro quo.
The Samsung family’s collateral risk eased with a 10 trillion won buyback, but local markets are still cautious. Local traders now eye another 10 trillion won shareholder return.
The timing of the special dividend and tax deadlines may cause mismatches, but we should watch for earlier price moves in Samsung Electronics preferred shares.


Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life Insurance.</li>
<li>The total amount of Samsung Electronics that could be sold by Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung F&amp;M Insurance is 25.6 trillion won (at current prices). </li>
<li>We remain Positive on Samsung Electronics. The 10 trillion won buyback program is a positive sign on the company's willingness to provide higher shareholder returns.</li>
</ul>


Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life Insurance.
The total amount of Samsung Electronics that could be sold by Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung F&amp;M Insurance is 25.6 trillion won (at current prices). 
We remain Positive on Samsung Electronics. The 10 trillion won buyback program is a positive sign on the company's willingness to provide higher shareholder returns.


A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced a massive share buyback program worth 10 trillion won which represents 3.1% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Of this total amount, about 3 trillion won will be purchased and cancelled in the next three months. This will include 50,144,628 common shares and 6,912,036 preferred shares.</li>
<li>We believe that this massive share buyback and cancellation is likely to boost Samsung Electronics' share price resulting in a strong outperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 6-12 months. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced a massive share buyback program worth 10 trillion won which represents 3.1% of its market cap.
Of this total amount, about 3 trillion won will be purchased and cancelled in the next three months. This will include 50,144,628 common shares and 6,912,036 preferred shares.
We believe that this massive share buyback and cancellation is likely to boost Samsung Electronics' share price resulting in a strong outperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 6-12 months. 


Samsung Electronics: A Massive 10 Trillion Won Share Buyback Program

<ul>
<li>The stock’s still below 1x PBR. But with Samsung’s tech gaps and slowdowns, going all-in on an outright long here off the back of this buyback feels way too early</li>
<li>The key is whether pref discounts tighten like 2015, but with a more balanced buyback this time and narrowing pref discounts, making a pref rally harder to predict short-term.</li>
<li>The goal’s the same as 2015—boosting the family’s control. If the remaining buyback leans pref-heavy, it could further tighten pref discounts, creating a potential opportunity to play the compression.</li>
</ul>


The stock’s still below 1x PBR. But with Samsung’s tech gaps and slowdowns, going all-in on an outright long here off the back of this buyback feels way too early
The key is whether pref discounts tighten like 2015, but with a more balanced buyback this time and narrowing pref discounts, making a pref rally harder to predict short-term.
The goal’s the same as 2015—boosting the family’s control. If the remaining buyback leans pref-heavy, it could further tighten pref discounts, creating a potential opportunity to play the compression.


Sammy's Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Dividend Tax Cut Decision Scheduled for 25th, Next Monday: Watch Sammy Prefs

Next Monday, the 25th, the National Assembly will decide on separate dividend taxation—definitely keep an eye on Samsung Electronics preferred stock.

Sanghyun Park

A Step Closer to Samsung Life Insurance Finally Selling Its Shares in Samsung Electronics?

Amid Samsung Electronics announcing a huge buyback of 10 trillion won, one of the issues that has resurfaced is the potential sale of Samsung...

Douglas Kim

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

This post contains my personal view on the three scenarios triggered by Samsung Electronics' buyback that shook the market today.

Sanghyun Park

Sammy's Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

This post breaks down Samsung Electronics’ massive buyback: Instead of going all in on a straight long, keep an eye on the pref compression play....

Sanghyun Park

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