Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

GS Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We argue that the top 20 listed construction companies in Korea are likely to underperform KOSPI in 2024 mainly due to the excessive risks in the housing/commercial real estate sectors.</li>
<li>We expect the share prices of these 20 domestic construction companies to fall by at least 15%-20%+ on average in the next 6-12 months. </li>
<li>On 2 January 2024, Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) announced that there will be new reporting requirements for PF loans of Korean construction companies starting 2023 annual reports.</li>
</ul>


We argue that the top 20 listed construction companies in Korea are likely to underperform KOSPI in 2024 mainly due to the excessive risks in the housing/commercial real estate sectors.
We expect the share prices of these 20 domestic construction companies to fall by at least 15%-20%+ on average in the next 6-12 months. 
On 2 January 2024, Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) announced that there will be new reporting requirements for PF loans of Korean construction companies starting 2023 annual reports.


Top 20 Korean Construction Companies: Off-Balance Sheet Contingent Liabilities To Drive Lower Prices

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. </li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. 
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.
Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported today that SK Pharmteco completed a 660 billion won in pre-IPO funding valuing the company at 4 trillion won.</li>
<li>Prior to this investment, SK Inc owned a 100% stake in SK Pharmteco. After this investment, it is estimated that SK Inc will own about 83.5% stake in SK Pharmteco. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 19.0 trillion won (NAV per share of 258,967 won), representing a 47% upside from current levels.</li>
</ul>


It was reported today that SK Pharmteco completed a 660 billion won in pre-IPO funding valuing the company at 4 trillion won.
Prior to this investment, SK Inc owned a 100% stake in SK Pharmteco. After this investment, it is estimated that SK Inc will own about 83.5% stake in SK Pharmteco. 
Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 19.0 trillion won (NAV per share of 258,967 won), representing a 47% upside from current levels.


Updated NAV on SK Inc Post 660 Billion Pre-IPO Investment in SK Pharmteco

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Dec 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD10.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We have highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Naver.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Dec 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD10.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We have highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Naver.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 8th): Naver

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>This is our 9th "Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview" at Smartkarma.</li>
<li>This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2024.</li>
<li>These 50 IPOs in Korea are likely to represent more than 80% of all capital raised through IPOs in Korea next year.</li>
</ul>


This is our 9th "Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview" at Smartkarma.
This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2024.
These 50 IPOs in Korea are likely to represent more than 80% of all capital raised through IPOs in Korea next year.


South Korea

Samsung Biologics Co.,Ltd. manufactures bio-healthcare products. The Company develops, refines, and distributes biopharmaceutical products.

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Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)

Top 20 Korean Construction Companies: Off-Balance Sheet Contingent Liabilities To Drive Lower Prices

Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)'s share price declined by 9.1% YTD. Lotte Chemical has a 44.02% stake in Lotte Construction whose PF loan balance as...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Updated NAV on SK Inc Post 660 Billion Pre-IPO Investment in SK Pharmteco

It was reported today that SK Pharmteco completed a 660 billion won in pre-IPO funding valuing the company at 4 trillion won.

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 8th): Naver

We analyzed the KRX short interest report for the past week and we highlighted weekly KRX short interest changes in Naver.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2024 Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea

This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2024. This is our 9th "Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline...

Douglas Kim

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