Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

The risk-on trade that dominated market proceedings in the second half of 2016 was more about a reversal from an oversold position than reflective of a typical risk-on environment. In the twelve months prior, banking shares were being crushed, by concerns that Japan would slide deeper into negative interest rate territory; while high-beta basic material stocks were suffering from China’s slower than expected economy and the resulting collapse in commodity prices. June 2016 saw the BoJ agree not…

The risk-on trade that dominated market proceedings in the second half of 2016 was more about a reversal from an oversold position than reflective of a typical risk-on environment. In the twelve months prior, banking shares were being crushed, by concerns that Japan would slide deeper into negative interest rate territory; while high-beta basic material stocks were suffering from China’s slower than expected economy and the resulting collapse in commodity prices. June 2016 saw the BoJ agree not…

Japan Stock Market Strategy - Is It Time to Put the Risk-On Trade Back On?

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<h2>Summary</h2>The Fed and the BoC have been the vanguard, but other major central banks are signalling their intention to withdraw monetary stimulus, bringing the curtain down on what has been famously – and correctly in our view – described as the world’s greatest monetary policy experiment. Given that the global economy has become accustomed to cheap money over the past eight years, and with asset price valuations at historically elevated levels, the challenge for central bankers is considerable.…

SummaryThe Fed and the BoC have been the vanguard, but other major central banks are signalling their intention to withdraw monetary stimulus, bringing the curtain down on what has been famously – and correctly in our view – described as the world’s greatest monetary policy experiment. Given that the global economy has become accustomed to cheap money over the past eight years, and with asset price valuations at historically elevated levels, the challenge for central bankers is considerable.…

The Market Sentimentalist – Rear Window: Hitchcock, Self-Driving Cars And Central Bankers

Following widespread newspaper speculation over the long weekend, Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has said he’ll decide on calling a snap election after he returns from a trip to the U.S. He is scheduled to attend meetings at the United Nations before returning to Japan on 22nd September. The way in which this story has emerged has suggested to some commentators that Abe is uncertain as to the wisdom of the move and that he may be trialing the idea to get a taste of the public mood. However…

Following widespread newspaper speculation over the long weekend, Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has said he’ll decide on calling a snap election after he returns from a trip to the U.S. He is scheduled to attend meetings at the United Nations before returning to Japan on 22nd September. The way in which this story has emerged has suggested to some commentators that Abe is uncertain as to the wisdom of the move and that he may be trialing the idea to get a taste of the public mood. However…

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The...

Chris Roberts

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would...

Mio Kato

Japan Stock Market Strategy - Is It Time to Put the Risk-On Trade Back On?

The risk-on trade that dominated market proceedings in the second half of 2016 was more about a reversal from an oversold position than reflective...

Pelham Smithers Associates

The Market Sentimentalist – Rear Window: Hitchcock, Self-Driving Cars And Central Bankers

SummaryThe Fed and the BoC have been the vanguard, but other major central banks are signalling their intention to withdraw monetary stimulus,...

Amareos

Abe Considers Snap Election

Following widespread newspaper speculation over the long weekend, Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has said he’ll decide on calling a...

Pelham Smithers Associates