Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has finally rebounded from the support zone and is now trading above key levels suggesting a retest of the February highs if not beyondThis looks good also for a USD denominated foreign investor as US yields remain low and the USD on the back foot thereby keeping a lid on USDJPY.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has finally rebounded from the support zone and is now trading above key levels suggesting a retest of the February highs if not beyondThis looks good also for a USD denominated foreign investor as US yields remain low and the USD on the back foot thereby keeping a lid on USDJPY.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L / Event-Driven

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a>.While the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a> was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with Keyence Corp (6861 JP), Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) and Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) replacing Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP), Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) and Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP).While the inclusion of Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and the deletion of Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP) and Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

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Nikkei bull breakout call from 28,000 has cleared the higher degree breakout level at 29,000 with impressive momentum. 30,200 is near resistance for a rally stall. Today, we outline add support levels on any dip.We are bullish on dips with risk we continue to run as flows induce a mushroom rise.31,000 remains the minor new high target with an upgrade to 32,400.RSI near 85 is expected to induce a rally stall.

Nikkei bull breakout call from 28,000 has cleared the higher degree breakout level at 29,000 with impressive momentum. 30,200 is near resistance for a rally stall. Today, we outline add support levels on any dip.We are bullish on dips with risk we continue to run as flows induce a mushroom rise.31,000 remains the minor new high target with an upgrade to 32,400.RSI near 85 is expected to induce a rally stall.

Japan is a high conviction long bet on the macro bull wedge eventually breaking to the upside with washout risk to 26,000 in September. 29,000 is the bigger breakout level that would give a macro green light. 28k was the tactical long trigger to test wedge resistance at 29k.Bull conviction on the Nikkei was to buy a new low or a break above 28,000. We closed our short and turned long above 28,000 (28,080), stop below 27,900. Target at 29,000 (28,900). Above 29,000 would target 31,000 in due course. Tactical cycle calls for a rejection and downside test from 29k.

Japan is a high conviction long bet on the macro bull wedge eventually breaking to the upside with washout risk to 26,000 in September. 29,000 is the bigger breakout level that would give a macro green light. 28k was the tactical long trigger to test wedge resistance at 29k.Bull conviction on the Nikkei was to buy a new low or a break above 28,000. We closed our short and turned long above 28,000 (28,080), stop below 27,900. Target at 29,000 (28,900). Above 29,000 would target 31,000 in due course. Tactical cycle calls for a rejection and downside test from 29k.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels for Japan and Hong Kong.Bank of Korea's rate hike may set of a fresh round of market concerns as we head into the Jackson hole Fed meeting as the growth/inflation tightrope gathers more attention. Today is a key cycle turn date that adds to market energy.Japan's short shows the highest risk of seeing an early bottom near 27k and the level to break to reach for the 26,000 ideal turn zone where we see an opportunity to reverse to long. Hong Kong is next in line to bottom in September.

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels for Japan and Hong Kong.Bank of Korea's rate hike may set of a fresh round of market concerns as we head into the Jackson hole Fed meeting as the growth/inflation tightrope gathers more attention. Today is a key cycle turn date that adds to market energy.Japan's short shows the highest risk of seeing an early bottom near 27k and the level to break to reach for the 26,000 ideal turn zone where we see an opportunity to reverse to long. Hong Kong is next in line to bottom in September.

Asia Short Cluster Digging for September Lows

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei 225 Shows a Solid Break

The rally in the Nikkei 225 looks very constructive and a retest of the year's highs seems to be on the cards. there are also good signs that the...

Shyam Devani

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Nintendo, Murata & Keyence are into the Nikkei225 while Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan & Sky Perfect are out. This trade will be more about the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei Long Add Support

Nikkei bull breakout call from 28,000 cleared the 29k high degree breakout level with impressive momentum. 30,200 is near resistance for a rally...

Thomas Schroeder

Nikkei Tactical Breakout to Test 29k

Japan is a high conviction long bet on the macro bull wedge eventually breaking to the upside with washout risk to 26,000 in September. 29,000 is...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Short Cluster Digging for September Lows

Our Asia short group kissed fresh sell levels (add back to early August entries) with fresh lows in store for September that will set up buy levels...

Thomas Schroeder