Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

Price action on Chinese equity markets at the start of this week now raise eyebrows as the FTSE China A50 Index shows clear risk of further losses while the Shanghai Composite is testing pivots.Whether this translates to CNH weakness is not clear.

Price action on Chinese equity markets at the start of this week now raise eyebrows as the FTSE China A50 Index shows clear risk of further losses while the Shanghai Composite is testing pivots.Whether this translates to CNH weakness is not clear. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Chinese indices have started to stabilise and bounce from the identified buy zones. The setups emerging are looking very encouraging for a decent rally ahead.When combined with the recent economic data and rhetoric/position of policy makers, the relative charts against the S&amp;P 500 are once again looking very interesting both from historical and short term perspectives.

Chinese indices have started to stabilise and bounce from the identified buy zones. The setups emerging are looking very encouraging for a decent rally ahead.When combined with the recent economic data and rhetoric/position of policy makers, the relative charts against the S&amp;P 500 are once again looking very interesting both from historical and short term perspectives.

This note is a follow up from an earlier one titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-equities-time-for-a-rebound" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53440" rel="noopener">China Equities – Time for a Rebound?</a> Over the past several sessions we have seen relative stabilisation and what looks to be the start of a decent rally.Along the way and in the immediate term, we are now testing some levels that could lead to a brief pause. Any small pullback from here should be seen as an opportunity to add to longs.

This note is a follow up from an earlier one titled China Equities – Time for a Rebound? Over the past several sessions we have seen relative stabilisation and what looks to be the start of a decent rally.Along the way and in the immediate term, we are now testing some levels that could lead to a brief pause. Any small pullback from here should be seen as an opportunity to add to longs.

China Equities Follow Up: Pause Before Higher

*Mainland China Crackdown: Unsurprisingly, this past week mainland China has continued its steady official crackdown on cryptoccurency, reiterating its ban on providing cryptocurrency services, placing pressure on bitcoin miners, etc; and *Tether Flows: Given the mainland Chinese crackdown, it would appear that investors don't understand Tether’s systemic risks; and/or mainland Chinese-based investors are aggressively moving funds out of the country via this channel prior to it being shut down completely. If  authorities decide the shut the Tether channel over its use for moving large amounts of capital out of mainland China, cryptocurrency market liquidity would essentially dry up as Tether accounts for over 60% of global cryptocurrency daily trading volumes.

*Mainland China Crackdown: Unsurprisingly, this past week mainland China has continued its steady official crackdown on cryptoccurency, reiterating its ban on providing cryptocurrency services, placing pressure on bitcoin miners, etc; and *Tether Flows: Given the mainland Chinese crackdown, it would appear that investors don't understand Tether’s systemic risks; and/or mainland Chinese-based investors are aggressively moving funds out of the country via this channel prior to it being shut down completely. If  authorities decide the shut the Tether channel over its use for moving large amounts of capital out of mainland China, cryptocurrency market liquidity would essentially dry up as Tether accounts for over 60% of global cryptocurrency daily trading volumes. 

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

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