Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Equity Capital Markets

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Capital Markets

843 pages long, the Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) prospectus, is a monster. We can’t recall anything like this, ever.  On the surface, the bank appears to be a viable alternative to the large four SOE banks.  But with a bit more reading, we are not convinced that the bank is as riskless as made out in the document.  What makes PSBC interesting is its scope for growth with an exceptionally low level of loans compared with deposits; its low-cost funding base; and its policy bank risk…

843 pages long, the Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) prospectus, is a monster. We can’t recall anything like this, ever.  On the surface, the bank appears to be a viable alternative to the large four SOE banks.  But with a bit more reading, we are not convinced that the bank is as riskless as made out in the document.  What makes PSBC interesting is its scope for growth with an exceptionally low level of loans compared with deposits; its low-cost funding base; and its policy bank risk…

Postal Savings Bank of China a Viable Alternative to Big Four?

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016. Non-oil exports as well as non-oil imports are likely to have remained weak in June on a 3mma basis, continuing the trend seen in the first five months of 2016, reflecting the headwinds the economy continues to face on the domestic as well as external front.On a 3mma basis overall exports declined 3.6% y-o-y in June, compared to a rise of 0.9% y-o-y in…

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY and 29% YTD YoY, slower compared to 22% and 34% in May, respectively. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 7% on YoY basis and declined by 3% on YTD YoY basis, improving on the previous month.In absolute terms, YTD (Jan-Jun) national new home sales reached historical highs, while the…

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

China

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Postal Savings Bank of China C (1658 HK)

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

Postal Savings Bank of China a Viable Alternative to Big Four?

843 pages long, the Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) prospectus, is a monster. We can’t recall anything like this, ever. On the surface, the...

Daniel Tabbush

China: RMB to Continue to Face Downside Pressure Through 2016

The RMB has declined almost 3% against the USD since the beginning of 2016. We expect the RMB to continue to face downside pressure through 2016....

Rajan Govil

China Data Brief: New Home Sales Growth Slows, Land Sales Growth Less Negative (Jan-Jun)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in June, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 14% YoY...

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

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