Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our Chinese bank screens are based on valuations, prospective returns, credit quality and capital adequacy</li>
<li>Among the deep value Chinese banks, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>  (PSBC) for its recovering returns and potential for further returns expansion</li>
<li>We believe that PSBC’s extremely high NPL coverage (400%+) could anchor its cost of risk going forward</li>
<li>We also like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> (CCB) for its attractive valuations relative to returns, and its premium core capital ratio; CCB’s NPL coverage is a healthy 200%+</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on PSBC and CCB include worsening fundamental trends such as weaker than expected margins, higher than expected NPLs resulting in an increase in cost of risk, and higher than expected opex</li>
</ul>


Our Chinese bank screens are based on valuations, prospective returns, credit quality and capital adequacy
Among the deep value Chinese banks, we highlight Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)  (PSBC) for its recovering returns and potential for further returns expansion
We believe that PSBC’s extremely high NPL coverage (400%+) could anchor its cost of risk going forward
We also like China Construction Bank H (939 HK) (CCB) for its attractive valuations relative to returns, and its premium core capital ratio; CCB’s NPL coverage is a healthy 200%+
Risks to our positive view on PSBC and CCB include worsening fundamental trends such as weaker than expected margins, higher than expected NPLs resulting in an increase in cost of risk, and higher than expected opex


China Banks – 1Q21 Screens Highlight PSBC & CCB Positively

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</div><div>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Financials and Industrials sectors.</div><div>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus Co Ltd (3923 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daito-trust-construct-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1" rel="noopener">Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-financial-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5887:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Financial (8570 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-mining-smelting-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15998:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting Co (5706 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Industrials and Financials sectors, and decreased in the Consumer Discretionary sector.</div><div>
Short selling finally resumed in Korea this week. Shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>. The largest percentage increase in shorts was seen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-chemicals-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26190:1" rel="noopener">Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daewoo-shipbuilding-marine-engineering" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (042660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6993:1" rel="noopener">E Mart Inc (139480 KS)</a>.
In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdom-marine-lines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10001:1" rel="noopener">Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wiwynn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27838:1" rel="noopener">Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/richwave-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18629:1" rel="noopener">Richwave Technology (4968 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hannstar-display-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13922:1" rel="noopener">Hannstar Display (6116 TT)</a>. 
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and BYD Electronics (285 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK) and Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Health Care and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Financials and Industrials sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP), Rakus Co Ltd (3923 JP), Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP) and Aeon Financial (8570 JP) while shorts decreased on Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) and Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting Co (5706 JP). Shorts increased in the Industrials and Financials sectors, and decreased in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Short selling finally resumed in Korea this week. Shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) and Naver Corp (035420 KS). The largest percentage increase in shorts was seen on Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), Sk Chemicals Co Ltd/New (285130 KS), Daewoo Shipbuilding &amp; Marine Engineering (042660 KS) and E Mart Inc (139480 KS).
In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), AU Optronics (2409 TT) and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), while shorts covered on Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT), Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT), Richwave Technology (4968 TT), Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) and Hannstar Display (6116 TT). 


Asia Shorts: BYD, Ping An, Toshiba, Rakus, Aeon, Celltrion, LG Display, SK Chem, Novatek, Yang Ming

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Positive Operating Jaws: China Everbright Bank (6818.HK) [CEB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 11.5 bn, increasing CNY 3.3 bn (40.1%) linked quarter. When we exclude securities gains, results were less robust coming in at CNY 8.5 bn, but still improving CNY 1.8 bn (27.4%). Results were driven by CEB’s positive operating jaws, as revenues improved CNY 2.6 bn (7.7%) while costs declined CNY 660 mn (6.1%); and*Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at Indian bank pace of CNY 11.5 bn or 110.8% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserve are short in the neighborhood of CNY 103 mn which represents about three years of 1Q20 core operating results. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 77%.

*Positive Operating Jaws: China Everbright Bank (6818.HK) [CEB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 11.5 bn, increasing CNY 3.3 bn (40.1%) linked quarter. When we exclude securities gains, results were less robust coming in at CNY 8.5 bn, but still improving CNY 1.8 bn (27.4%). Results were driven by CEB’s positive operating jaws, as revenues improved CNY 2.6 bn (7.7%) while costs declined CNY 660 mn (6.1%); and*Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at Indian bank pace of CNY 11.5 bn or 110.8% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserve are short in the neighborhood of CNY 103 mn which represents about three years of 1Q20 core operating results. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 77%. 

China Everbright Bank – Credit Remains Troublesome

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary:  A flattening US interest rate yield curve changed the dynamics for credit investors for most of the month of April, in complete contrast to how interest rates behaved in March. The narrative changed to one that was Treasury bond supportive, and this supported shorter-duration securities. Meanwhile yield curve flattening pushed credit spreads in the opposite direction longer out the curve.The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically. Investors that were positioned in higher duration bonds witnessed underperformance on a total return basis. Meanwhile, investors in lower duration bonds outperformed on a total return basis. However, as the month ended, we began to witness a return of the reflation trade with US interest rates ending the month on an upswing. May could see a repeat of March’s carry-trade performance.From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had a mixed performance with one-third of the +100 bonds that we track widening during the month. Vaccine versus virus concerns led to lower economic growth projections by the market than seen in the prior month. Expectations for an unsynchronized global recovery also factored. Taken together, this would delay the much needed catch-up in credit fundamentals to match the monetary accommodation driven spread compression over the last year. As such, bond spread tightening was less ebullient while widening lessened the amount of fundamental performance needed to justify lofty spread levels.

Executive Summary:  A flattening US interest rate yield curve changed the dynamics for credit investors for most of the month of April, in complete contrast to how interest rates behaved in March. The narrative changed to one that was Treasury bond supportive, and this supported shorter-duration securities. Meanwhile yield curve flattening pushed credit spreads in the opposite direction longer out the curve.The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically. Investors that were positioned in higher duration bonds witnessed underperformance on a total return basis. Meanwhile, investors in lower duration bonds outperformed on a total return basis. However, as the month ended, we began to witness a return of the reflation trade with US interest rates ending the month on an upswing. May could see a repeat of March’s carry-trade performance.From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had a mixed performance with one-third of the +100 bonds that we track widening during the month. Vaccine versus virus concerns led to lower economic growth projections by the market than seen in the prior month. Expectations for an unsynchronized global recovery also factored. Taken together, this would delay the much needed catch-up in credit fundamentals to match the monetary accommodation driven spread compression over the last year. As such, bond spread tightening was less ebullient while widening lessened the amount of fundamental performance needed to justify lofty spread levels.

Bank Credit Compass: Total Return Sweet Spot Moves, but May Rebound

China

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Postal Savings Bank of China C (1658 HK)

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Stanley Tsai, CFA

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Victor Galliano

Asia Shorts: BYD, Ping An, Toshiba, Rakus, Aeon, Celltrion, LG Display, SK Chem, Novatek, Yang Ming

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

China Everbright Bank – Credit Remains Troublesome

CHINA EVERBRIGHT BANK: Operating results grew 27.4% QOQ, driven by positive operating jaws. Credit continues to weaken and the loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Compass: Total Return Sweet Spot Moves, but May Rebound

The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically in April. However, as the month ended, the reflation trade returned. May could see a...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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