Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Technical Analysis

PBOC intervention following Moody’s downgrade has pushed the currency higher.However, it seems that the offshore yuan USDCNH cross has reached a support area in 6.7250/6.7100 (and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22820" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22820:1">CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)</a> in parallel 6.7840), with indicators in the oversold area, with no strong signals of reversal yet (no divergence), and a 200 day Moving Average which has been broken and is now resistance close to 6.8000.On the short run, the market is right at this resistance area. Elements are calling for a drop…

PBOC intervention following Moody’s downgrade has pushed the currency higher.However, it seems that the offshore yuan USDCNH cross has reached a support area in 6.7250/6.7100 (and CNY (USDCNY CURNCY) in parallel 6.7840), with indicators in the oversold area, with no strong signals of reversal yet (no divergence), and a 200 day Moving Average which has been broken and is now resistance close to 6.8000.On the short run, the market is right at this resistance area. Elements are calling for a drop…

Offhore Yuan USDCNH : On Levels for a Possible Last Downleg Before a New Rise Back to 6.9200/7.0000

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Offhore Yuan USDCNH : On Levels for a Possible Last Downleg Before a New Rise Back to 6.9200/7.0000

PBOC intervention following Moody’s downgrade has pushed the currency higher.However, it seems that the offshore yuan USDCNH cross has reached a...

Guillaume Coutant

Trump Is a Dead-Weight on the USD

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely...

Greg Gibbs

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

Weakening Credit in 1Q17 in China

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment. The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...

Daniel Tabbush

What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped...

Christopher Balding

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)