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Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos</li><li>Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid</li><li>Foreign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace</li></ul>

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaosNio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to CovidForeign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Foreign investments in China’s government bonds had been on the rise in recent years with the market appearing to acquire a safe-haven status as it became more accessible and liquid.</li>
<li>Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this as the country is likely to default despite its large international reserves, which presents spillover risks to others, particularly China.</li>
<li>After suffering heavy losses in Russian holdings, investors are likely to factor in political and geopolitical risks more explicitly going forward, which would work against China.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investments in China’s government bonds had been on the rise in recent years with the market appearing to acquire a safe-haven status as it became more accessible and liquid.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this as the country is likely to default despite its large international reserves, which presents spillover risks to others, particularly China.
After suffering heavy losses in Russian holdings, investors are likely to factor in political and geopolitical risks more explicitly going forward, which would work against China.


Early Signs of a Geopolitical Risk Premium in China’s Bonds?

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

<ul>
<li>Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. </li>
<li>Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. </li>
<li>But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).</li>
</ul>


Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. 
Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. 
But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).


<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.
I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos. Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid

Caixin Global

Early Signs of a Geopolitical Risk Premium in China’s Bonds?

China's government bonds were being viewed as a safe-haven asset but Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this with geopolitical risks...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Market Snapshot, Theatre of War

Amidst carnage in financial markets, some assets - inc US Treasury yields, some Asian and high-yielding EM currencies, AUD & NZD and even S&P 500 -...

Olivier Desbarres

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 25 of the 35 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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