Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.</li><li>Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.</li><li>Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.</li></ul>

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.</li>
<li>We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.</li>
<li>A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.
We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.
A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.


Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.</li>
<li>China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.</li>
<li>In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!</li>
</ul>


For the first time in the current melt-up, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment has touched ‘Frenzy’ territory, suggesting the rally has run its course, at least temporarily.
China has cut rates and is contemplating more stimulus to bolster sectors like real estate and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the economy continues to slow.
In a surprise move, Blackrock has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with Coinbase as a custodian!


The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.</li><li>This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.</li><li>Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.</li></ul>

The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: Timing the Beta Exit

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions

Steno Research

Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

The debt issues at Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles lead to a misallocation of capital, lower growth, disinflation, and pressure on risk...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor (24) – Our Key Sentiment Index Signals Market FRENZY

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index is on the verge of entering FRENZY territory, which would be the first time during the latest rally!

Jeroen Blokland

China Recovery - Industrial

This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.

Untying The Gordian Knot

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)