Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>On 3 February 2023 we identified a material topside failure in RIO LN and pending high probability multi-week to multi-month decline into the 5415/5650 range.</li>
<li>RIO LN declined from 6064 on 3 February to a low of 5568 on 27 February, a decline of 8.2%. Target achieved.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 3 February 2023 we identified a material topside failure in RIO LN and pending high probability multi-week to multi-month decline into the 5415/5650 range.
RIO LN declined from 6064 on 3 February to a low of 5568 on 27 February, a decline of 8.2%. Target achieved.


Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) - 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Friday's weekly close is setting up to confirm a high probability bearish outlook when all 3 pillars are definitively triggered.</li>
<li>A weekly close below 6077 will confirm a high probability multi-week to multi-month correction target in the 5415/5650 range.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Friday's weekly close is setting up to confirm a high probability bearish outlook when all 3 pillars are definitively triggered.
A weekly close below 6077 will confirm a high probability multi-week to multi-month correction target in the 5415/5650 range.


Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) - Prominent Topside Failure - Meaningful Correction Risk

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Kepco Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.</li>
<li>Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There are 6 adds and 5 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 January.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 12% and will result in a one-way trade of US$207m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 5x ADV.
Some of the inclusions have had BIG rallies over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking on those names in the next few days.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: 6 Adds, 5 Deletes

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened since mid-December.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (11 January): C.F.Alba, 48.9%; GBL, 36.3%; Heineken Holding, 19.5%; Industrivärden C, 14.3%; Investor B, 15.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 10.8%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened since mid-December.
Discounts to NAV (11 January): C.F.Alba, 48.9%; GBL, 36.3%; Heineken Holding, 19.5%; Industrivärden C, 14.3%; Investor B, 15.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 10.8%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: New Year‘23 Report

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)