Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has apparently lobbed a higher offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> and AGL has apparently rejected it.</li>
<li>Confirmation from AGL is due tomorrow but given the previous bid was "ridiculously low", "extremely undervalued" the company, and had "unserious" elements, expect the language to be similar.</li>
<li>Next steps probably mean waiting for the De-Merger Circular due April but possibly May. In the meantime, this probably trades in a range.</li>
</ul>


The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has apparently lobbed a higher offer for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) and AGL has apparently rejected it.
Confirmation from AGL is due tomorrow but given the previous bid was "ridiculously low", "extremely undervalued" the company, and had "unserious" elements, expect the language to be similar.
Next steps probably mean waiting for the De-Merger Circular due April but possibly May. In the meantime, this probably trades in a range.


Second Brookfield-MCB Bid for AGL Energy Rejected

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector</li>
<li>It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. </li>
<li>Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.</li>
</ul>


A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector
It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. 
Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.


Global Energy:  Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

<ul>
<li>Earlier this week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN)</a> announced a plan for 'Unification' of the A and B lines, to be put to shareholder vote in 3 weeks. </li>
<li>The plan entails moving 10 execs to London, changing corporate and tax jurisdiction to the UK. </li>
<li>The question investors should be asking themselves is... Is There A Trade Here?</li>
</ul>


Earlier this week, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) announced a plan for 'Unification' of the A and B lines, to be put to shareholder vote in 3 weeks. 
The plan entails moving 10 execs to London, changing corporate and tax jurisdiction to the UK. 
The question investors should be asking themselves is... Is There A Trade Here?


Thinking About the Royal Dutch Shell "Unification"

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Corporate "net-zero" climate pledges are all the rage of late, with proud press releases being issued on a daily basis. This is a welcome trend – the world is woefully behind climate goals and based on current national pledges, we have a 5% chance of achieving the Paris Agreement's 2-degree goal.Corporate climate action is imperative.However, corporate pledges aren't always what they purport to be. Occasional greenwashing aside, even well-intentioned pledges from reputable companies can be misleading. Not intentionally, but due to ambiguous "net-zero" vernacular and the complexities of corporate climate action plans.The devil is in the details, for example:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN)</a> has a 2050 goal premised on carbon offsets (not reductions) of a magnitude larger than today's entire global carbon offset markets in those specific areas.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21847:1" rel="noopener">BP plc (BP LN)</a> plans net-zero by 2050 via offsets and continued oil production is incompatible with 2-degree global warming (plus it funds lobbying against climate-change regulations).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a> aims to be carbon negative by 2030, and by 2050 to have removed all CO2 emitted in its entire history (impossible with current technologies and offset markets).</li>
</ul>This Insight addresses those details. What to look for, and how to scrutinize climate pledges. Major differences between net-zero emissions, net-zero carbon, and carbon neutral. Emissions reduction versus offsetting. And the need for careful planning and long lead times, with no room for error.This will also serve as theoretical context for upcoming Insights that delve deeper into corporate climate pledges (e.g., a thematic report on science-based targets, and critiques of company-specific pledges).

Corporate "net-zero" climate pledges are all the rage of late, with proud press releases being issued on a daily basis. This is a welcome trend – the world is woefully behind climate goals and based on current national pledges, we have a 5% chance of achieving the Paris Agreement's 2-degree goal.Corporate climate action is imperative.However, corporate pledges aren't always what they purport to be. Occasional greenwashing aside, even well-intentioned pledges from reputable companies can be misleading. Not intentionally, but due to ambiguous "net-zero" vernacular and the complexities of corporate climate action plans.The devil is in the details, for example:

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) has a 2050 goal premised on carbon offsets (not reductions) of a magnitude larger than today's entire global carbon offset markets in those specific areas.

BP plc (BP LN) plans net-zero by 2050 via offsets and continued oil production is incompatible with 2-degree global warming (plus it funds lobbying against climate-change regulations).

Microsoft (MSFT US) aims to be carbon negative by 2030, and by 2050 to have removed all CO2 emitted in its entire history (impossible with current technologies and offset markets).
This Insight addresses those details. What to look for, and how to scrutinize climate pledges. Major differences between net-zero emissions, net-zero carbon, and carbon neutral. Emissions reduction versus offsetting. And the need for careful planning and long lead times, with no room for error.This will also serve as theoretical context for upcoming Insights that delve deeper into corporate climate pledges (e.g., a thematic report on science-based targets, and critiques of company-specific pledges). 

Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Second Brookfield-MCB Bid for AGL Energy Rejected

The Brookfield-Grok Ventures bid for AGL was upped this weekend by 10%, and the AFR reports it was rejected. This either needs a big foreigner to...

Travis Lundy

Global Energy: Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

Ownership in the Global Energy sectors is at record lows. Despite rising oil prices, it is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation...

Steven Holden

Thinking About the Royal Dutch Shell "Unification"

Royal Dutch Shell has announced a planned "Unification" to be decided by shareholder vote on 10 December. The goal is to unify the A and B lines to...

Travis Lundy

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details

Companies announce net-zero climate pledges daily, but they aren't always what they claim. The devil is in the details. This Insight explains what...

Kyle Rudden

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