Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see Ueda’s pause on lifting its negative rates policy as temporary, and we expect that this policy change could occur as early as January</li>
<li>Despite this monetary pause in tightening and the fall in 10Y JGB yields, we are encouraged by the rise in long term loan yields in the BoJ data to October-end</li>
<li>We reiterate our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, MUFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


We see Ueda’s pause on lifting its negative rates policy as temporary, and we expect that this policy change could occur as early as January
Despite this monetary pause in tightening and the fall in 10Y JGB yields, we are encouraged by the rise in long term loan yields in the BoJ data to October-end
We reiterate our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, MUFG and Concordia


Japanese Banks – No Change to Our Bullish View on the Back of the BoJ’s Pause on Interest Rates

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. </li>
<li>MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.</li>
</ul>



Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a SID with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. 
MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.


Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>On 28th Nov 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced that it would sell around 9.4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> in order to reduce its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>The shares hadn’t corrected much till our last note on 7th Dec 2023, they have since corrected by 6% .</li>
<li>We have covered the deal background and deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price movement, as compared to prior deals.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding.
The shares hadn’t corrected much till our last note on 7th Dec 2023, they have since corrected by 6% .
We have covered the deal background and deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price movement, as compared to prior deals.


Denso Corp Placement - Quick Update - In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains

<ul>
<li>On 28th Nov 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> announced that it would sell around 9.4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> in order to reduce its cross-shareholding. </li>
<li>Since then the shares haven’t corrected by much, as compared to prior large secondary deals.</li>
<li>We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about deal dynamics, as compared to prior deals.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding. 
Since then the shares haven’t corrected by much, as compared to prior large secondary deals.
We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about deal dynamics, as compared to prior deals.


Denso Corp Placement - Not Quite Shaping up for a Win Yet

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Sep 23, it had 14.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.5tn.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP). 
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Sep 23, it had 14.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.5tn.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and updates since our last note.


Rakuten Bank Placement - Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Japanese Banks – No Change to Our Bullish View on the Back of the BoJ’s Pause on Interest Rates

BoJ's decision to pause on lifting negative rates is temporary and could change as soon as January; evidence of higher long term loan rates...

Victor Galliano

Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose...

Arun George

Denso Corp Placement - Quick Update - In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains

On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around US$4bn of Denso Corp (6902 JP). While the shares didn't correct...

Sumeet Singh

Denso Corp Placement - Not Quite Shaping up for a Win Yet

On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten Bank Placement - Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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