Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way, especially Brazil--we highlight each MSCI ACWI sector, highlighting weighting recommendations, internal themes, and stock ideas. Top-down or bottom-up, there’s actionable ideas here for everyone.

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

CEO, Manalo LLP

Roderick Manlo

Manalo LLP

We provide event driven research services to hedge fund managers and institutional investors that cover select definitive and pre-announced M&A deals, focusing on identifying and analysing the key upside and downside risks to a particular transaction. We primarily analyse $billion+ takeovers or mergers of publicly-traded European targets, but also look at deals globally to assess when there is a key European angle or aspect that can influence the deal outcome.

With over 16 years’ experience in risk arbitrage and investment banking, we specialise in providing research and advisory services on all facets of risk arbitrage, with particular expertise in:

- Cross-Border M&A
- Hostile Takeovers
- Local Takeover Codes
- Antitrust & Competition
- Financial Valuation
- Shareholder Vote Analysis
- Impacts of Precedent Transactions
- Risk Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Event-Driven

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has “no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”, but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has “no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”, but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.

Uniper / Fortum: Fortum's Stance - Weighing Patience and Discipline with Additional Benefits

Finland

Fortum Oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. The Company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat and steam, as well as the operation of power plants and energy-related services. Fortum operates worldwide but mainly in Northern Europe.

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Fortum OYJ (FORTUM FH)

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE,...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Sector by Sector Overview

Today’s report is international in title, global in coverage. Inside, after reviewing trends in EM, Europe, and Japan--EM looks great, by the way,...

Vermilion Research

Uniper / Fortum: Fortum's Stance - Weighing Patience and Discipline with Additional Benefits

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for...

Roderick Manlo

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