CEO, Manalo LLP

Roderick Manlo

Manalo LLP

We provide event driven research services to hedge fund managers and institutional investors that cover select definitive and pre-announced M&A deals, focusing on identifying and analysing the key upside and downside risks to a particular transaction. We primarily analyse $billion+ takeovers or mergers of publicly-traded European targets, but also look at deals globally to assess when there is a key European angle or aspect that can influence the deal outcome.

With over 16 years’ experience in risk arbitrage and investment banking, we specialise in providing research and advisory services on all facets of risk arbitrage, with particular expertise in:

- Cross-Border M&A
- Hostile Takeovers
- Local Takeover Codes
- Antitrust & Competition
- Financial Valuation
- Shareholder Vote Analysis
- Impacts of Precedent Transactions
- Risk Arbitrage Trading Strategies

Event-Driven

<p>With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has <em>“no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”,</em> but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.</p>

With Uniper shares trading 13.2% higher than Fortum’s €22 per share voluntary offer price, Fortum’s patience will be tested as it waits for Uniper’s share price to migrate lower - is it content with only acquiring the 46.65% Uniper stake held by E.ON (EOAN GY), or will it be pushed into increasing the offer to build its stake higher? Fortum insists it has “no plans nor any reason to raise the offer”, but the company’s ambitions and enthusiasm for acquiring Uniper have been laid clear - event driven funds are, in turn, looking for clues to suggest that Fortum may be compelled to bump its offer. In this note we discuss Fortum's stance: weighing patience and discipline with additional benefits. Contact us for our detailed risk arbitrage report where we examine precedent German tender offers to determine: 1) the key factors that lead to bumps; 2) which precedents are the most similar to Uniper / Fortum; and 3) the feasible outcomes from now through the end of the acceptance period.

Uniper / Fortum: Fortum's Stance - Weighing Patience and Discipline with Additional Benefits