Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

2020 turned out to be a record year for semiconductor equipment sales with revenues of North American vendors increasing 22.5% sequentially to reach an all time high of $29.7 billion. On the back of a step-function CapEx 2021 forecast increase by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> and ever-increasing reports of chip shortages, particularly in the automotive industry, the outlook for the current year is also looking particularly strong. Here's our analysis of the sector and why we see it going from strength to strength.

2020 turned out to be a record year for semiconductor equipment sales with revenues of North American vendors increasing 22.5% sequentially to reach an all time high of $29.7 billion. On the back of a step-function CapEx 2021 forecast increase by TSMC and ever-increasing reports of chip shortages, particularly in the automotive industry, the outlook for the current year is also looking particularly strong. Here's our analysis of the sector and why we see it going from strength to strength.

Semiconductor WFE. Going From Strength To Strength.

2020 was a year of two halves as far as semiconductor memory was concerned. The first two quarters saw rising ASPs for both DRAM and NAND. In the case of the former, it was the reversal of a five-quarter period of declining ASPs and, in the case of the latter, the reversal of an eight quarter downward ASP spiral. That recovery changed trajectory in the second half of the year when ASPs once again declined across the board during the third and fourth quarters. So, where exactly are we in terms of the current memory cycle and what can we expect in the quarters and years ahead? Here's our thoughts on the matter.

2020 was a year of two halves as far as semiconductor memory was concerned. The first two quarters saw rising ASPs for both DRAM and NAND. In the case of the former, it was the reversal of a five-quarter period of declining ASPs and, in the case of the latter, the reversal of an eight quarter downward ASP spiral. That recovery changed trajectory in the second half of the year when ASPs once again declined across the board during the third and fourth quarters. So, where exactly are we in terms of the current memory cycle and what can we expect in the quarters and years ahead? Here's our thoughts on the matter.

Semiconductor Memory Cycles. Where Are We At & Where Are We Going?

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Event-Driven

On the latest earnings call, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> responded to a question on M&amp;A that has perked the interest of investors.   Is a M&amp;A in the cards in the near future?  We examine the likelihood and possible target(s).

On the latest earnings call, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) responded to a question on M&amp;A that has perked the interest of investors.   Is a M&amp;A in the cards in the near future?  We examine the likelihood and possible target(s). 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook, intact since early November, has been based on the fact that virtually all signals from the market have been consistent with risk-on behavior that we would expect to see in bull markets. Now, the picture is less clear; we are still bullish, just slightly less so than we have been over the past 2-3 months. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology.

Our bullish outlook, intact since early November, has been based on the fact that virtually all signals from the market have been consistent with risk-on behavior that we would expect to see in bull markets. Now, the picture is less clear; we are still bullish, just slightly less so than we have been over the past 2-3 months. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Manufacturing & Transports

Equity Bottom-Up

Dutch lithography giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML</a> this week reported fourth quarter earnings of €4.3 billion, slightly ahead of expectations and an increase of 5.4% year on year. Full year 2020 revenues amounted to €13.98 billion, a sequential increase of 18.3%. The company's 2021 guidance for another year of double digit growth failed to impress the markets overnight with the share price remaining largely unmoved. By their own admission, ASML's forecast is overly conservative and there is significant potential upside that could push the company well into the mid-twenties percentage growth sequentially. Here are our thoughts on their earnings report and where we see that potential upside arising from.

Dutch lithography giant ASML this week reported fourth quarter earnings of €4.3 billion, slightly ahead of expectations and an increase of 5.4% year on year. Full year 2020 revenues amounted to €13.98 billion, a sequential increase of 18.3%. The company's 2021 guidance for another year of double digit growth failed to impress the markets overnight with the share price remaining largely unmoved. By their own admission, ASML's forecast is overly conservative and there is significant potential upside that could push the company well into the mid-twenties percentage growth sequentially. Here are our thoughts on their earnings report and where we see that potential upside arising from. 

ASML. Strong Earnings, Conservative Outlook Albeit With Significant Upside Potential.

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Semiconductor WFE. Going From Strength To Strength.

Semiconductor WFE revenues grew by around 20% in 2020. We expect similar, if not stronger, growth in 2021. Here's why we see the sector going from...

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory Cycles. Where Are We At & Where Are We Going?

With the memory boom & bust cycle of the past three years in our rear view mirror, we posit that we are now entering a period of greater stability...

William Keating

Samsung Electronics - M&A in the Cards?

Samsung Electronics' M&A desire. To me there is a clear target that can be done in the near future even with JY Lee in the can.

Ken S. Kim

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Manufacturing & Transports

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Manufacturing, and Technology

Vermilion Research

ASML. Strong Earnings, Conservative Outlook Albeit With Significant Upside Potential.

ASML's 2021 double digit growth forecast seems overly conservative to us. We think there is potential upside that will add significantly to that...

William Keating

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