Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating but roll-over our TP by 1%to Bt423 based on38.6xPE’23E (5-Year average trading).Our rating reflects neutral outlook on DELTA’s23Eearnings growth due to a high 22E base.</li>
<li>Outstanding 2Q22 earnings should be unsustainable Net profit in 2Q22 was at Bt4.3bn (+53% YoY, +158% QoQ), which was 60% above our forecast, as well as consensus. Copper dropping </li>
<li>Sales in 2Q22 was at Bt28bn (+36% YoY,+14% QoQ),driven QoQ and YoY by continued strong growth in EV power,thermal fan, and data center segments,which should be the trend going forward.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating but roll-over our TP by 1%to Bt423 based on38.6xPE’23E (5-Year average trading).Our rating reflects neutral outlook on DELTA’s23Eearnings growth due to a high 22E base.
Outstanding 2Q22 earnings should be unsustainable Net profit in 2Q22 was at Bt4.3bn (+53% YoY, +158% QoQ), which was 60% above our forecast, as well as consensus. Copper dropping 
Sales in 2Q22 was at Bt28bn (+36% YoY,+14% QoQ),driven QoQ and YoY by continued strong growth in EV power,thermal fan, and data center segments,which should be the trend going forward.


DELTA : Outstanding 2Q22 Earnings Leads to High 22E Base and Limited Growth in 23E

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt419 based on based on 51.7xPE’22E. Business update meeting last Friday came with positive news on improving shortage situation by 4Q22 </li>
<li>2Q22E earnings to decline QoQ: We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt2.7bn (+61% YoY, -4% QoQ).</li>
<li>We expect 2Q22E sales to be at Bt24bn (+15%YoY, -4% QoQ). QoQ decline is mainly due to lockdown issues in China and longer holidays during 2Q22.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt419 based on based on 51.7xPE’22E. Business update meeting last Friday came with positive news on improving shortage situation by 4Q22 
2Q22E earnings to decline QoQ: We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt2.7bn (+61% YoY, -4% QoQ).
We expect 2Q22E sales to be at Bt24bn (+15%YoY, -4% QoQ). QoQ decline is mainly due to lockdown issues in China and longer holidays during 2Q22.


DELTA: Shortage Issue Still Persists Despite Concerns on Weakening Demand in 2022

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ended yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> from index deletion.</li>
</ul>


The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ended yesterday.

JMT Network Services (JMT TB), Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could replace Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC).

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) from index deletion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

<ul>
<li>Starting from 1 January 2022, DELTA will be removed from the SET50 index calculation. We believe that a significant portion of investors will sell off, as the number of funds </li>
<li>We believe that there are no major changes in the company’s growth prospects. Therefore,the current valuation at 78xPE’22 is supported from SET-50 inclusion rather than a key change in fundamentals</li>
<li>We expect the company outlook in 2022-23 to benefit from growth in global ICT spending.Their Infrastructure segment will benefit from this as data center demand is driven by strong growth </li>
</ul>


Starting from 1 January 2022, DELTA will be removed from the SET50 index calculation. We believe that a significant portion of investors will sell off, as the number of funds 
We believe that there are no major changes in the company’s growth prospects. Therefore,the current valuation at 78xPE’22 is supported from SET-50 inclusion rather than a key change in fundamentals
We expect the company outlook in 2022-23 to benefit from growth in global ICT spending.Their Infrastructure segment will benefit from this as data center demand is driven by strong growth 


DELTA: Exclusion from SET50 Will Lead to Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.</li>
</ul>


Asset World, Banpu Public and Ngern Tid Lor are being added to the SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) while Berli Jucker, Delta Electronics and Sri Trang Agro will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% and results in a one-way trade of THB 4,957m. The deletions of BJC/ DELTA will result in a funding inflow to the other index constituents.

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) is a surprise to an extent with the name not appearing on most lists on the street. We had it as a low probability inclusion.


SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

Thailand

Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL designs and manufactures electronic equipment. The Company produces power systems for telecommunications, medical equipment, and industrial automation.  Delta also produces fans, electromagnetic interference filters, and solenoids.

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Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)

DELTA : Outstanding 2Q22 Earnings Leads to High 22E Base and Limited Growth in 23E

We maintain our BUY rating but roll-over our TP by 1% to Bt423 based on 38.6xPE’23E (5-Year average trading). Our rating reflects neutral outlook...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

DELTA: Shortage Issue Still Persists Despite Concerns on Weakening Demand in 2022

We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt419 based on based on 51.7xPE’22E. Business update meeting last Friday came with positive news on improving...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

We see 2 high probability changes and 1 low probability change at the June review of the SET50 Index. JMT, JMART & BJC could replace STGT, RATCH &...

Brian Freitas

DELTA: Exclusion from SET50 Will Lead to Sell-Off

Starting from 1 January 2022, DELTA will be removed from the SET50 index calculation. We believe that a significant portion of investors will sell...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SET50 December Index Rebalance: AWC, BANPU, TIDLOR Added; BJC, DELTA, STA Out

There are 3 changes to the SET50 index at the December rebalance. AWC, BANPU and TIDLOR will replace BJC, DELTA and STA. AWC is a 'surprise' and...

Brian Freitas

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