Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 5M, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>  China received ~72K orders for MIC M3, plus 22K backlog orders exiting 2020.  GF3 made 103K M3 in 5M, among which 69K were delivered in China and 29K were exported.  The estimated order backlog exiting May was ~25K, slightly down from 26K backlog exiting April.  Excess production at the GF3 has been exported to markets around the world.  If TSLA China does not implement effective promotional programs and or policies to stimulate demand, we estimate that MIC 3 orders will stagnate around 9K per month, vs. monthly production of ~21K.  In other words, MIC 3 exports are likely to increase MoM due to the lower cost structure including BoM of MIC cars.</p>

In 5M, Tesla Motors (TSLA US)  China received ~72K orders for MIC M3, plus 22K backlog orders exiting 2020.  GF3 made 103K M3 in 5M, among which 69K were delivered in China and 29K were exported.  The estimated order backlog exiting May was ~25K, slightly down from 26K backlog exiting April.  Excess production at the GF3 has been exported to markets around the world.  If TSLA China does not implement effective promotional programs and or policies to stimulate demand, we estimate that MIC 3 orders will stagnate around 9K per month, vs. monthly production of ~21K.  In other words, MIC 3 exports are likely to increase MoM due to the lower cost structure including BoM of MIC cars.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.</p>
<p>Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. </p>
<p>BYD also announced that a total of <strong>1500</strong> Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. <strong>The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year</strong>.</p>
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<p>BYD is added into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. </p>
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<p>BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. </p>
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<p><strong>Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. </strong></p>
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China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, met with Tesla’s local subsidiaries in February over increased consumer reports of vehicle problems and later on issued a statement saying it places high importance on the Shanghai auto show incident. The authority said it has instructed local regulators to protect consumer interests.
Tesla is mainly a US company but with the growing wealth in China and Tesla's market positioning as the high-end EV, it has managed to gain substantial traction in China and doubled its sales contribution from 20 to 40% by March 2021. 
BYD also announced that a total of 1500 Tang SUVs will be delivered to Norway before the end of the year as the company commits to accelerating its European and global strategies. The initial 100 cars are scheduled for delivery to Norwegian customers in the third quarter of this year.

BYD is added into Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the same time while other names are involved with one or some are two - moving from one to another. 

BYD is trading at 84% PER discount, 83% EV/EBITDA discount, and 73% PBR discount to Tesla while its share price also lagged behind Tesla's in the past 6 months. 

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time to start shorting Tesla and long BYD. 


BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>We expect market competition in China's BEV segment rise in the next two years. The interesting thing is that most of new models announced/launched lately target C-segment market. The second popular market is A-segment sedan, in which 3 new models were launched and would start delivery by the end of this year.  B-segment has the least new model announced.  Which models would be the best sellers in their target markets? Which OEM/brand would gain solid market position?</strong></p>

We expect market competition in China's BEV segment rise in the next two years. The interesting thing is that most of new models announced/launched lately target C-segment market. The second popular market is A-segment sedan, in which 3 new models were launched and would start delivery by the end of this year.  B-segment has the least new model announced.  Which models would be the best sellers in their target markets? Which OEM/brand would gain solid market position?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>There were some anxious moments after China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) <a href="http://www.samr.gov.cn/fldj/ajgs/jzjyajgs/202011/t20201125_323881.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 25 November it was reviewing the MBK/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:942:1" rel="noopener">Car Inc (699 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1113/2020111301538.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deal</a> as a simple case  - then promptly took near-on sixty day to assess the transaction rather than the "normal" 30 days. But Car <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0125/2021012501159.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on 25 January the pre-conditions had been fulfilled and the Composite Document would be despatched on or before 29 January. </p>
<p>That despatch was pushed to the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0129/2021012901138.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1 February</a>, and now the Doc is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0131/2021013100161.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. </p>
<p>The First Closing Date is the 22 February. The IFA (Halcyon) says "fair &amp; reasonable."</p>
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<p>The Offer is subject to a 50% tendering condition - with MBK holding 47.43% at the completion of its SPA with UCAR, together with irrevocables. Warburg/Amber, holding 4.96% at last count, is a seller. This is done.</p>
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<p>More thoughts below the fold.</p>
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There were some anxious moments after China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced on the 25 November it was reviewing the MBK/ Car Inc (699 HK) deal as a simple case  - then promptly took near-on sixty day to assess the transaction rather than the "normal" 30 days. But Car announced on 25 January the pre-conditions had been fulfilled and the Composite Document would be despatched on or before 29 January. 
That despatch was pushed to the 1 February, and now the Doc is out. 
The First Closing Date is the 22 February. The IFA (Halcyon) says "fair &amp; reasonable."


The Offer is subject to a 50% tendering condition - with MBK holding 47.43% at the completion of its SPA with UCAR, together with irrevocables. Warburg/Amber, holding 4.96% at last count, is a seller. This is done.


More thoughts below the fold.


Car (699 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair. Done Deal

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<p>Back on the 13 November MBK <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1113/2020111301538.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> a pre-conditional general cash Offer of $4.00/share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:942:1" rel="noopener">Car Inc (699 HK)</a>, a 17.99% premium to last close.  This was discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/4TZfG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Car Inc (699 HK): MBK's Firm Offer</a></em>.</p>
<p>On the 25 November, China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) <a href="http://www.samr.gov.cn/fldj/ajgs/jzjyajgs/202011/t20201125_323881.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was reviewing the MBK/CAR deal as a simple case. Under the simplified procedure, SAMR generally grants clearance in 30 days.  Two months elapsed. For some investors, 'it as preferable to buy this d rather buy this mid $3.80's after SAMR signing offer rather than second guess the regulatory process and a consistent seller (Warburg/Amber).</p>
<p>Last night, Car <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0125/2021012501159.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the pre-conditions have been fulfilled and the Composite Document will be despatched on or before 29 January. </p>
<p>The Offer is subject to a 50% tendering condition - with MBK holding 47.41% at the completion of its SPA with UCAR, together with irrevocables. This is done.</p>
<p>More thoughts below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 13 November MBK tabled a pre-conditional general cash Offer of $4.00/share for Car Inc (699 HK), a 17.99% premium to last close.  This was discussed in Car Inc (699 HK): MBK's Firm Offer.
On the 25 November, China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced it was reviewing the MBK/CAR deal as a simple case. Under the simplified procedure, SAMR generally grants clearance in 30 days.  Two months elapsed. For some investors, 'it as preferable to buy this d rather buy this mid $3.80's after SAMR signing offer rather than second guess the regulatory process and a consistent seller (Warburg/Amber).
Last night, Car announced the pre-conditions have been fulfilled and the Composite Document will be despatched on or before 29 January. 
The Offer is subject to a 50% tendering condition - with MBK holding 47.41% at the completion of its SPA with UCAR, together with irrevocables. This is done.
More thoughts below the fold.


Car Inc (699 HK):  No, We Are Not Missing Anything

China

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

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SAIC Motor (600104 CH)

TSLA China Losing to Chinese NEV OEMs

TSLA will begin to experience excess production of the Y in the next couple of months, as the China order backlog wanes from 43KQ1 to 17K Q2. Y...

JL Warren Capital

BYD (1211) Vs Tesla (TSLA): Fight over China

Given BYD's foray into battery technology has started to yield fruit and Tesla's market share in China may be in danger, it is probably a good time...

Henry Soediarko

China EV: Which Is the Next Best Seller?

We expect market competition in China's BEV segment rise in the next two years. The interesting thing is that most of new models announced/launched...

Victoria Li

Car (699 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair. Done Deal

This is a done deal. Trading tight at 0.5%/6.3% gross/annualised. Watch for any last-minute weakness to pick up a spread o two below here.

David Blennerhassett

Car Inc (699 HK): No, We Are Not Missing Anything

The Offer is subject to a 50% tendering condition - with MBK holding 47.41% at the completion of its SPA with UCAR, together with irrevocables. Buy...

David Blennerhassett

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