Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.</li><li>The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.</li><li>The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.</li></ul>

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.</li><li>The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.</li><li>While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).</li></ul>

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2.The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1.While this is a substantial amount, it’s $55 billion less than the October estimate for Q1 ($816 billion).

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Western central bankers have made it amply clear that rate cuts are not a given. They remain data dependent. And the data is sending mixed signals.</li>
<li>Meanwhile markets are opting for selective hearing and are pricing sharp rate cuts soon. Inflation is hard to tackle in general. The last mile gets nasty. Are markets ready?</li>
<li>Base effects have contributed to the rapid slowdown in inflation. When these base effects fade, the false sense of safety could crater leading to a very different inflation narrative.</li>
</ul>


Western central bankers have made it amply clear that rate cuts are not a given. They remain data dependent. And the data is sending mixed signals.
Meanwhile markets are opting for selective hearing and are pricing sharp rate cuts soon. Inflation is hard to tackle in general. The last mile gets nasty. Are markets ready?
Base effects have contributed to the rapid slowdown in inflation. When these base effects fade, the false sense of safety could crater leading to a very different inflation narrative.


Rate Cuts: How Much? How Quick? How Real?

United States

2-Year US Treasury Note Futures (TU1 COMDTY)

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SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by...

Steno Research

US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to Decide the QT Tapering Timing Tomorrow

Yesterday, the US Treasury revealed the issuance targets for Q1 and Q2. The net addition to marketable debt is $760 billion for Q1. While this is...

Steno Research

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Rate Cuts: How Much? How Quick? How Real?

Higher for longer was the mantra for rates. Betting on rate cuts is the in-thing in monetary economics these days. Inflation is known for its head...

Mint Finance

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