Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkem Laboratories Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.</li>
<li>In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.</li>
<li>For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.
In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.
For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In Q2FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 14.3%/1.7% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially gRevlimid, gSpiriva, gPrezista), and stabilizing pricing pressure in the US base business.</li><li>EBITDA margin improved by a healthy 210bps/50bps YoY/QoQ amidst normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices.</li><li>The US sales were robust, aided by the new launches comprising gRevlimid, gSpiriva, and gPrezista and increased demand for resilient suppliers amid drug shortages.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q2FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 14.3%/1.7% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially gRevlimid, gSpiriva, gPrezista), and stabilizing pricing pressure in the US base business.EBITDA margin improved by a healthy 210bps/50bps YoY/QoQ amidst normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices.The US sales were robust, aided by the new launches comprising gRevlimid, gSpiriva, and gPrezista and increased demand for resilient suppliers amid drug shortages.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.</li><li>The growth is likely to be led by value-added new launches, market share expansion, and strong momentum in the Indian market.</li><li>A high double-digit growth in the US market was led by gRevlimid and other value-added launches despite intense competition and low singledigit growth witnessed in the basic generic business. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.The growth is likely to be led by value-added new launches, market share expansion, and strong momentum in the Indian market.A high double-digit growth in the US market was led by gRevlimid and other value-added launches despite intense competition and low singledigit growth witnessed in the basic generic business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul><li>In Q1FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 20.5%/6.1% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially Revlimid), and stabilizing pricing pressure in the US base business.</li><li>EBITDA margin improved by a healthy 581bps/234bps YoY/QoQ amidst normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices.</li><li>US sales was robust, aided by gRevlimid, new launches, and increased demand for resilient suppliers amid drug shortages.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 20.5%/6.1% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially Revlimid), and stabilizing pricing pressure in the US base business.EBITDA margin improved by a healthy 581bps/234bps YoY/QoQ amidst normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices.US sales was robust, aided by gRevlimid, new launches, and increased demand for resilient suppliers amid drug shortages.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Aurobindo Pharma Limited manufactures and markets oral and sterile antibiotics, antibacterials, anti-ulcerants and other generic basic drugs. Products include semi-synthetic penicillin drugs like ampicillin and amoxycillinas well as antibiotics, which include cloxacillin and dicloxacillin. The Company also manufactures formulations like astemizole, domeperidone and omeprazole.

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Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

Pharma Sector: Q2FY24 Review

In Q2FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 14.3%/1.7% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially...

Axis Direct

Pharma - Q2FY24 - Earnings Preview

The Pharma companies under our coverage are likely to report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 17.4%/23.8%/25.2% YoY in Q2FY24E.

Axis Direct

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Top Sector Ideas - Pharma

In Q1FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe posted robust revenue growth of 20.5%/6.1% YoY/QoQ on account of volume rampup, new launches (especially...

Axis Direct

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