Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The possible merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon has been talked about for years despite concerns from both drugstores, but may now happen.</li>
<li>But calling these retailers drugstores is increasingly a misnomer: FMCG-drugstores is better because they and many others in the sector, increasingly compete with FMCG retailers like supermarkets and even CVS.</li>
<li>This evolution is rapid so the merits of a deal make more sense when we view it from a sector five years in the future than how it is today.</li>
</ul>


The possible merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon has been talked about for years despite concerns from both drugstores, but may now happen.
But calling these retailers drugstores is increasingly a misnomer: FMCG-drugstores is better because they and many others in the sector, increasingly compete with FMCG retailers like supermarkets and even CVS.
This evolution is rapid so the merits of a deal make more sense when we view it from a sector five years in the future than how it is today.


Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth

<ul>
<li>KDDI's agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.</li>
<li>There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI's offer suggests.</li>
<li>And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.</li>
</ul>


KDDI's agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI's offer suggests.
And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.


Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> would take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>. The stock immediately headed to limit up. </li>
<li>Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.</li>
<li>This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson's Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.</li>
</ul>


Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson's Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.


The Next Step in Lawson's Big Boots Adventure - KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Seijo Ishii is Japan’s leading premium supermarket chain with some 200 stores and is being prepped for an IPO by its owner, Lawson. </li>
<li>After strong growth during Covid, sales have now flattened and the company’s large import business has suffered from higher costs due to the weak Yen and global crises.</li>
<li>To maintain its market position, it is reducing imports of packaged goods and increasing volumes of imported, high-end raw materials – and then manufacturing products itself.</li>
</ul>


Seijo Ishii is Japan’s leading premium supermarket chain with some 200 stores and is being prepped for an IPO by its owner, Lawson. 
After strong growth during Covid, sales have now flattened and the company’s large import business has suffered from higher costs due to the weak Yen and global crises.
To maintain its market position, it is reducing imports of packaged goods and increasing volumes of imported, high-end raw materials – and then manufacturing products itself.


Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.</li>
<li>Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.</li>
<li>They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.
Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.
They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.


Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Japan

Mitsubishi Shokuhin Co.,Ltd. is a wholesaler of processed food. The Company sells a varietyof groceries including canned products, dried food, frozen food, pet food, beverages, and liquors.

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Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP)

Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth

Merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon may happen as FMCG-drugstores increasingly compete with supermarkets and CVS, so we need to view the...

Michael Causton

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...

Michael Causton

The Next Step in Lawson's Big Boots Adventure - KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

KDDI has announced a deal to buy out the remainder of the 50% not owned by MitCorp. They will split the company 50/50 going forward. Small premium....

Travis Lundy

Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...

Michael Causton

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth

​Merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon may happen as FMCG-drugstores increasingly compete with supermarkets and CVS, so we need to view the...

Michael Causton

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

​KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...

Michael Causton

The Next Step in Lawson's Big Boots Adventure - KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

KDDI has announced a deal to buy out the remainder of the 50% not owned by MitCorp. They will split the company 50/50 going forward. Small premium....

Travis Lundy

Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

​Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...

Michael Causton

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton

Merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon may happen as FMCG-drugstores increasingly compete with supermarkets and CVS, so we need to view the...

KDDI's offer with Lawson and Mitsubishi is a game-changer, including in e-commerce and retail media. Lawson's value may exceed the offer, as it...

Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...