Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Berkshire appears set to exit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a>'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.</li>
<li>The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire appears set to exit BYD (1211 HK) partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.
The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.


Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>2022 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. </li>
<li>Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> entered Nikkei 225 in July 2020 after rising 30%. That was the top.</li>
<li>Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks. </li>
</ul>


2022 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. 
Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) entered Nikkei 225 in July 2020 after rising 30%. That was the top.
Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks. 


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HCM reported FY revenue of ¥1,025bn, just above our ¥1,010bn estimate and blowing away clueless consensus’ ¥963bn. </li>
<li>OP was ¥93.5bn despite the trouble in Ukraine/Russia, just below our ¥95bn estimate and significantly above consensus at ¥86.8bn and guidance of ¥84bn. </li>
<li>Guidance for a YoY OP decline is silly in our view and we suspect there will be a double digit increase.</li>
</ul>


HCM reported FY revenue of ¥1,025bn, just above our ¥1,010bn estimate and blowing away clueless consensus’ ¥963bn. 
OP was ¥93.5bn despite the trouble in Ukraine/Russia, just below our ¥95bn estimate and significantly above consensus at ¥86.8bn and guidance of ¥84bn. 
Guidance for a YoY OP decline is silly in our view and we suspect there will be a double digit increase.


HCM – Obvious Blowout Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

<ul>
<li>Hitachi is evacuating more than 7,000 GlobalLogic employees from Ukraine to other countries, but IT workers are mobile and these may have more work due to cyber attacks.</li>
<li>Hitachi Construction Machinery and other Hitachi Group divisions do some business in Ukraine, but we expect the impact of the crisis to be manageable and temporary.</li>
<li>Hitachi Ltd shares are down 25% since November and the P/E ratio is near the bottom of its historical range. </li>
</ul>


Hitachi is evacuating more than 7,000 GlobalLogic employees from Ukraine to other countries, but IT workers are mobile and these may have more work due to cyber attacks.
Hitachi Construction Machinery and other Hitachi Group divisions do some business in Ukraine, but we expect the impact of the crisis to be manageable and temporary.
Hitachi Ltd shares are down 25% since November and the P/E ratio is near the bottom of its historical range. 


Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Assessing Exposure to Ukraine - Buy into the Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>HCM posted a strong set of 3Q results with revenue of ¥246.7bn a touch below our ¥248.5bn estimate and blowing away clueless consensus’ ¥219.2bn. </li>
<li>That the consensus high was just ¥231bn is an illustration of how poor the sell side understanding of HCM is compared to Komatsu. </li>
<li>We expect more of the same going forward… strength from HCM and cluelessness from sell side analysts.</li>
</ul>


HCM posted a strong set of 3Q results with revenue of ¥246.7bn a touch below our ¥248.5bn estimate and blowing away clueless consensus’ ¥219.2bn. 
That the consensus high was just ¥231bn is an illustration of how poor the sell side understanding of HCM is compared to Komatsu. 
We expect more of the same going forward… strength from HCM and cluelessness from sell side analysts.


HCM – Obvious Upgrade Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2022?

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2022 Version. This is a mark to market of the passive tracking data from domestic and international investors in...

Travis Lundy

HCM – Obvious Blowout Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

HCM results came in mostly in line with our projections but guidance for a YoY decline in OP is grossly unrealistic in our view. We expect a new...

Mio Kato

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Assessing Exposure to Ukraine - Buy into the Sell-Off

Hitachi is evacuating GlobalLogic employees from Ukraine, but they can work remotely. The exposure of Hitachi Construction Machinery and other...

Scott Foster

HCM – Obvious Upgrade Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

HCM posted a strong set of 3Q results with revenue of ¥246.7bn a touch below our ¥248.5bn estimate. Guidance which was bumped from ¥72bn OP to...

Mio Kato

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