Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Wall Street Journal last week <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is in advanced talks to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xilinx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11600:1" rel="noopener">Xilinx</a> for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. </p>

The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Advanced Micro Devices is in advanced talks to buy Xilinx for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. 

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

<ul>
<li>AMD announced their intention to acquire hyperscale solutions Provider ZT Systems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion</li>
<li>The real target of the deal is the 1,000 Data Center design engineers all of who will transfer directly to AMD's engineering team with an annual OpEx of $150 million</li>
<li>This is AMD scaling up to grab a larger share of the ~$400 billion by 2027 AI Data Center TAM just as Intel is scaling down its workforce by 15,000</li>
</ul>


AMD announced their intention to acquire hyperscale solutions Provider ZT Systems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion
The real target of the deal is the 1,000 Data Center design engineers all of who will transfer directly to AMD's engineering team with an annual OpEx of $150 million
This is AMD scaling up to grab a larger share of the ~$400 billion by 2027 AI Data Center TAM just as Intel is scaling down its workforce by 15,000


<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY</li>
<li>Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.</li>
<li>We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of &gt;70% YoY with potential for further upside</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY
Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.
We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of &gt;70% YoY with potential for further upside


AMD. This Party's Just Getting Started...

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

If the ~$5 billion (minus what it can get for ZT Systems manufacturing operations) AMD is paying to get its hands on 1,000 data center engineers...

William Keating

AMD Scales Up Just As Intel Scales Down

AMD to buy ZT Systems for $4.9 billion. The real target is the 1,000 strong data center R&D team, which aligns with their #1 strategic priority of...

William Keating

AMD. This Party's Just Getting Started...

Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, +6% QoQ, +10% YoY. Q124 $5.4 billion,-13% QoQ & flat YoY. We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of >70% YoY with...

William Keating

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

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