TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p>Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/​10/​​​​​2020

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18840:1">CBS Corporation (CBS US)</a> has made an opening bid to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7472:1">Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US)</a> while VIA counters the offer immediately.</li>
<li>Even at share swap ratio of 0.65 CBS shares for every VIA share, the deal (without taking into account cost synergy) would be EPS accretive for CBS.</li>
<li>The sector's M&amp;A deal flows and attractive valuation could put enough pressure for CBS's CEO to pull the trigger.</li>
<li>The play is through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11654" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11654:1">Viacom Inc Class B (VIAB US)</a> as its share price is 14% lower than VIA's.</li>
</ul><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18840:1">CBS Corporation</a>…</p>



CBS Corporation (CBS US) has made an opening bid to acquire Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US) while VIA counters the offer immediately.
Even at share swap ratio of 0.65 CBS shares for every VIA share, the deal (without taking into account cost synergy) would be EPS accretive for CBS.
The sector's M&amp;A deal flows and attractive valuation could put enough pressure for CBS's CEO to pull the trigger.
The play is through Viacom Inc Class B (VIAB US) as its share price is 14% lower than VIA's.
CBS Corporation…

Twenty First Century Fox A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More valuation details regarding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15439:1">The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16008" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16008:1">Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)</a> deal are coming out.</li>
<li>For-sale assets from FOXA is valued richly at 12.9x EBITDA.</li>
<li>Our calculation indicates merger arbitrage return potential of a sizable 14-23% if investors were to bet on FOXA.</li>
</ul><p>As we are writing this note, more details regarding valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15439:1">The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)</a> acquiring a large chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16008" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16008:1">Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)</a>'s assets are streaming in on financial media such…</p>


More valuation details regarding The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) and Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US) deal are coming out.
For-sale assets from FOXA is valued richly at 12.9x EBITDA.
Our calculation indicates merger arbitrage return potential of a sizable 14-23% if investors were to bet on FOXA.
As we are writing this note, more details regarding valuation of The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) acquiring a large chunk of Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US)'s assets are streaming in on financial media such…

Disney-Fox Deal: 14-23% Merger Arbitrage Return Potential for FOXA

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks</li><li>We have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.</li><li>Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks business</li><li>Sell Disney shares</li><li>Underweight the global TV broadcasting sector</li></ul>

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networksWe have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks businessSell Disney sharesUnderweight the global TV broadcasting sector

United States

Paramount Global operates as a media company. The Company produces and distributes entertainment content through studios, networks, streaming services, live events, and merchandise. Paramount Global serves customers worldwide.

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Paramount Global (PARA US)

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/10/2020

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

CBS-Viacom M&A: The Second Time a Charm?

CBS Corporation (CBS US) has made an opening bid to acquire Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US) while VIA counters the offer immediately. Even at share...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Disney-Fox Deal: 14-23% Merger Arbitrage Return Potential for FOXA

More valuation details regarding The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) and Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US) deal are coming out. For-sale assets from...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

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52-week Range

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Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/​10/​​​​​2020

Some datapoints that caught our eye last week in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

CBS-Viacom M&A: The Second Time a Charm?

CBS Corporation (CBS US) has made an opening bid to acquire Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US) while VIA counters the offer immediately. Even at share...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Disney-Fox Deal: 14-23% Merger Arbitrage Return Potential for FOXA

More valuation details regarding The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) and Twenty First Century Fox A (FOXA US) deal are coming out. For-sale assets from...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

Beyond the Virus: 3 Things from TMT Land that Stood Out Week of 4/10/2020