Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Disney is scheduled to release its Q2 2023 results later this week.</li>
<li>A number of factors are pointing to a strong and a better than expected quarter, but long-term problems remain.</li>
<li>The macroeconomic environment is also supportive for Disney's Parks, Experiences and Products segment.</li>
</ul>


Disney is scheduled to release its Q2 2023 results later this week.
A number of factors are pointing to a strong and a better than expected quarter, but long-term problems remain.
The macroeconomic environment is also supportive for Disney's Parks, Experiences and Products segment.


Disney's Q2 2023 Earnings: Now Is The Time To Deliver

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

United States

Paramount Global operates as a media company. The Company produces and distributes entertainment content through studios, networks, streaming services, live events, and merchandise. Paramount Global serves customers worldwide.

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Paramount Global (PARA US)

Disney's Q2 2023 Earnings: Now Is The Time To Deliver

Disney is scheduled to release its Q2 2023 results later this week. A number of factors are pointing to a strong and a better than expected...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

The S&P500 rebalance in December is shaping up to be a trade worth $8-13bn a side but there is a possible intra-review change to come as well....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

There are currently two expected ADDs and two expected DELs for the SP500 Dec24 Rebalance. There could be more from spinoffs and mergers. One big...

Travis Lundy

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